India Economics Weekly Trade considerations, services strength The decision by the US to scrap the preferential trade status granted to several Indian products has grabbed headlines this week. But the direct impact of the measures will be small. India’s exports... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Limited economic and market fallout from Kashmir Developments in Kashmir this week have left tensions between the Indian and Pakistani government at their most fraught in years, but the economic and market impact of the crisis is likely to be small. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly MPC minutes, farmer handouts, Kashmir The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s 7 th February policy meeting – in which rates were cut – reveal a significant difference of opinion between MPC members on the outlook for core inflation. We share... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Dodgy data, slumping Sensex Recent developments have again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to any... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI changes tack The RBI was able to point to a fall in inflation to justify its rate cut this week. But it also took a more sanguine line on the risks posed by still-high core inflation. We believe this will prove to... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI coughs up a little cash, Sensex forecasts A report this week that the RBI will transfer an “interim” dividend to the government has been wrongly linked by some to the government’s efforts to get the central bank to hand over more of its cash... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Election measures raise long-term risks The drumbeat of pre-election giveaways continues at the state level in the form of loan waivers and from the national government. These steps may be effective politically but they risk eroding... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal giveaways getting ramped up The dust has barely settled from the state election results announced last week, but our prediction that they would trigger a spate of fiscal giveaways is already being borne out. Farmer loan waivers... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP losses and new RBI governor raise policy risk The state election results announced this week were a clear setback for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP, as they suggest that goodwill is fading ahead of next year’s general election. While we still think... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI confusion, Rajasthan election Some have interpreted the small cuts to the statutory liquidity ratio announced by the RBI this week as evidence that the central bank is loosening policy, but we disagree. Meanwhile, the state... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly NBFC strains a headwind, but not catastrophic The recent drop in corporate bond issuance has been taken by many as a sign that a rise in the risk premium since the debt default by IL&FS Group is constraining local firms’ ability to borrow. The... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly What would be the impact if Governor Patel quit? Indian media has been awash with reports this week that RBI Governor Urjit Patel could quit his post at the Bank’s board meeting on Monday. We think this is unlikely but if he were to resign, local... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
