India Economics Weekly (Another) fraud scandal at PNB, vehicle sales slump The latest fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank – one of India’s largest state-owned banks – is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector need to be supplemented with... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A US$5trn economy by 2025? The main message from the annual Economic Survey released this week is that the government has made it a key objective to turn India into a US$5trn economy by FY24/25, from US$2.7trn currently. But... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly The bad loan cycle is turning The RBI’s confirmation this week that the NPL ratio has dropped over the past year suggests that the government’s efforts to tidy up the banking sector are gradually having an impact. We are... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Tax exemptions, RBI minutes Ahead of the full budget for FY19/20 on 5 th July, the early leaks have focused on potential changes to income taxes. By themselves, these won’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But they... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly GDP doubts resurface The release this week of analysis by Arvind Subramanian questioning the quality of India’s GDP data has caused a stir. Questions about India’s data are not new. We argued that the new methodology used... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Pressure for reform ratcheting up The withdrawal this week of the preferential trade status granted by the US to several Indian products will have limited economic impact given that exports of the affected goods were worth just 0.2%... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Can the party continue? Election fever has gripped Indian financial markets this week, with equities and the rupee rallying as it became increasingly clear that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP would secure another resounding... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Data concerns come to the fore again Recent revelations have once again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Record GST revenues, weaker rupee The surge in GST revenues over recent months won’t be enough to solve the government’s fiscal woes in the near term. However, it does suggest that compliance with the new tax system is improving, and... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Export strength unlikely to last Indian goods exports grew strongly in March, bucking the trend across most of Asia. But this strength is unlikely to last given a weakening of global demand and domestic capacity constraints. 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly World Bank too optimistic, remittance crown retained The World Bank released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Bank is... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex rally won’t last Indian equities scaled new highs this week, with the Sensex surpassing 39,000 for the first time on Tuesday. But we doubt that the recent rally will be sustained. From a valuations perspective, Indian... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP election boost, fiscal tricks Reports that Congress has been rebuffed in its attempts to form an alliance with local parties in Uttar Pradesh would, if accurate, provide a major boost to Prime Minister Modi’s BJP ahead of next... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
