India Economics Weekly Mixed messages from state elections The BJP’s disappointing performance in the Haryana state election is a setback for the government, but its victory in Maharashtra still leaves it on course to gain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Credit growth likely to rebound soon The continued slowdown in credit growth in September challenges our view that the economy is set to recover after a weak first half of the year. But with lending rates now beginning to drop in earnest... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Global Competitiveness Index gives food for thought The drop in India’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Index released this week is likely to reverse next year as reforms has been stepped up since the general... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly The fallout from the fiscal bonanza The large-scale fiscal stimulus announced last Friday has continued to reverberate in markets this week. We are revising up our end-2019 equity market forecasts to reflect the recent surge, though we... 27th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly The anatomy of the vehicle sale slump Data released this week showing a further slump in passenger vehicle sales growth in August partly reflects broader weakness in consumption. But with industry-specific factors also at play and other... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold losing its shine, equities have further to fall Gold prices remain close to record highs in rupee terms, but the latest numbers on gold import volumes should assuage any concerns over the impact on the external position. Meanwhile, the Sensex has... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Corporate tax cut, Kerala floods If implemented, the corporate tax cut suggested by a government panel this week wouldn’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But it would be indicative of a more accommodative fiscal stance... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Key takeaways from PM Modi’s media interview In a rare media interview published this week, Prime Minister Modi discussed several economic issues. Among the key takeaways, it is clear that the government wants policy to be loosened even further... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal deficit target doubtful, banking code amended India’s fiscal deficit in Q1 of FY19/20 provides little assurance about the government’s ability to meet the 3.3% target that it set in the union budget last month. We think that the finance ministry... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Acharya steps down, labour reform bills tabled Dr Viral Acharya, who stepped down from the MPC this week, was one of the most hawkish members of the committee. As such, his departure boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it... 26th July 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly A little sinning would do no harm Borrowing in foreign currency has been at the root of virtually every major EM sovereign debt crisis, which is why it gets called the “original sin” of emerging economies. It is unsurprising... 19th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly (Another) fraud scandal at PNB, vehicle sales slump The latest fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank – one of India’s largest state-owned banks – is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector need to be supplemented with... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
