India Economics Weekly Trump trip, the “tunnel of testing trade-offs” Progress on trade negotiations will be high on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to India next week. But we have low expectations for any major breakthrough given the protectionist turn taken... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP policy shift unlikely despite Delhi election loss The chastening defeat for the BJP in the Delhi Union Territory election has been viewed by some as a backlash against its recent policies including the passage of controversial Citizenship Amendment... 14th February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal policy to do heavy lifting, trade deal scepticism In tomorrow’s budget, the finance ministry will be trying to strike a balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude and supporting an economy in the doldrums. Some ambitious revenue projections... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stagflation concerns are overdone There has been growing talk of “stagflation” in India following the release of December’s CPI data this week, which showed that headline inflation jumped to a five-year high. But we think these... 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus increasingly likely A ramping up of anti-government protests and advanced estimates showing GDP growth dropped to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis in FY19/20 increases the pressure on the finance... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India. Further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could therefore be economically... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code improved, NBFC relief The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and easing of lending rules for shadow banks that were approved in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) this week should provide limited... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over to you, finance ministry While unexpectedly keeping rates on hold yesterday, the RBI put the onus on the finance ministry to do more of the heavy lifting to boost demand. So if we are right in thinking that the finance... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra drama a setback for reform prospects Developments this week have brought an end to the political gridlock in Maharashtra – India’s largest state by GDP – with the outcome providing a setback to longer-term reform ambitions at the... 29th November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Phone tariff hikes, more data concerns A blanket hike in mobile phone tariffs of 10% as has been speculated in the media would add 0.2%-pts to headline inflation over the next 12 months. That wouldn’t be enough to weigh significantly on... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bracing for more weak GDP data After a very weak first half of the year, the latest monthly data suggest that the economy hasn’t fared any better in the second half. We are revising down our estimate of Q3 GDP growth to 4.7%... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly More tax cuts, Sensex hits a record high Just a few weeks after corporate taxes were lowered, media reports this week suggested that further tax cuts are under consideration. While this would almost certainly push the central government’s... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
