India Economics Weekly Conditions slowly improve, interest waiver dispute The gradual loosening of strict containment measures has provided a slight boost to activity, but with new COVID-19 cases still rising sharply, the recovery is likely to be slower and bumpier than in... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Downgrade, locusts, activity edging up The downgrade of India’s sovereign rating by Moody’s this week had little impact on financial markets, and we think that bond yields will remain close to their current low level over the coming months... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions risk faster virus spread PM Modi is likely to extend the lockdown when he addresses the nation on Sunday as there is little indication of the virus being contained. However, restrictions are set to be eased significantly... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The nationwide lockdown is due to end on Tuesday but with recorded cases of the coronavirus still rising rapidly, only a partial scaling back of restrictions is likely. With large parts of the economy... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Early signs of lockdown impact in high frequency data A number of high-frequency indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and traffic congestion all show that activity levels have plummeted since the nationwide lockdown began last week. The... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry will need to do more The Finance Ministry took its first shot at responding to the coronavirus outbreak yesterday but, at only 0.7% of GDP, the fiscal stimulus measures are small. Much more will be needed to prevent a... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Travel ban, oil windfall, market rout The direct economic impact of the government’s suspension of foreign visas will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive domestic measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus over the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold price rally won’t hurt external position Gold prices have hit a record high in rupee terms in recent weeks, and are now far above the levels from 2012 when India was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. But a drop in underlying... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
