India Economics Weekly Our thoughts on the MPC shambles The last-minute postponement of the RBI's policy meeting scheduled for this week is because of the failure to find replacements for the three external MPC members whose terms ended after the last... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vehicle sales strength, rupee weakness The jump in passenger vehicle sales in August contrasts with other indicators showing that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stuttering. We suspect this is mostly a reflection of consumers making... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Becoming the virus epicentre India this week overtook Brazil to become the second-worst affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is only a matter of time before its total virus cases surpasses those in the US. This grim... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy to contract by 10% this year The shocking GDP data for Q2 and signs of a weak recovery have led us to revise down our expectations for growth in 2020. We are now forecasting GDP growth of -10% (previously -5.5%). Further ahead... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly OMOs ramped up, lifeline for borrowers The RBI this week announced new open market operations aimed at stabilising long-term bond yields. We think this is a sign of things to come as the authorities aim to keep government borrowing costs... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shadow banking strains are easing Severe strains in the shadow banking sector that were amplified during the initial stages of the coronavirus crisis are showing signs of easing. This should help ensure that the economic slump isn’t... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Recovery losing steam Various high-frequency indicators are suggesting that the post-lockdown recovery has stalled. And with new confirmed virus cases still rising sharply, the ongoing need for physical distancing and... 30th July 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector risks, bumper food harvest Concerns about an impending surge in non-performing loans have resurfaced over the past week. We flagged this risk a few months ago but, given the increasing likelihood of limited fiscal support, the... 17th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Are we worrying too much? In the week that India overtook Russia to become the third-worst affected country by the pandemic, it has been argued that measuring virus cases relative to population size would give a better... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly China push back, food handouts ramped up Measures taken by Indian authorities this week suggest that India is decoupling politically but also economically from China and potentially integrating more with Asia’s other democracies or the US... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rural economy holding up as urban prospects worsen The rural economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks and we think it will continue to hold up relatively well further ahead. However, urban prospects look much more bleak, in part due to... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
