India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry’s balancing act, RBI’s opportunity For India watchers, next week will be one of the most important of the year. We think the Finance Ministry will attempt to demonstrate prudence in the Union Budget on Monday, though obfuscation of the... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly FX reserve accumulation will limit rupee gains The RBI has accumulated foreign exchange reserves at a rapid pace over recent months, and comments this week from Governor Shaktikanta Das indicate that the central bank intends to build up its... 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovering, but headwinds remain The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment growth recovered further in Q4. The rebound should continue over the coming months, but is likely to slow in the second half of the year as... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes and concerns The approval of COVID-19 vaccines in India this week were quicker than most had expected, but concerns over the approval process and pricing disagreements underscore some of the challenges that remain... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A looser inflation target would not help The government is due to issue the RBI with a new inflation target next year, and there are suggestions that it is considering relaxing the existing framework perhaps by widening the “tolerance band”... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions allow recovery to continue The recovery in GDP was a touch faster than expected in Q3, and activity data released this week point to a continued rebound in Q4. How much output continues to be made up over the coming months will... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A dose of reality Newsflow continues to be dominated by the breakthroughs in the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines. But the collapse of Lakshmi Vilas Bank this week is another stark reminder of the extreme... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election could revitalise reforms The state election in Bihar due to start next week will be the first of any sort since the outbreak of COVID-19 in India, and a strong performance from the BJP would suggest that goodwill for the... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
