India Economics Update Stonking current account surplus will prove fleeting If ever there were a sign of how extraordinary economic developments have been this year, India recorded a stonking current account surplus in Q2. This is unlikely to last long, as oil prices will... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Fortunes diverge in South Asia Success in bringing the COVID-19 outbreak under control in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and to a lesser extent Bangladesh has enabled activity in these places to rebound much faster than in India, where new... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data point to sluggish demand recovery The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in August won’t put the external position at risk, but the underlying data suggest that the recovery in external and domestic demand is stuttering. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What next for government borrowing costs? The use of traditional monetary policy tools alongside financial repression will keep government borrowing costs in India in check over the coming years. That should help to ensure that only modest... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation close to peaking Ongoing virus-related supply disruptions as well as one-off factors such as phone tariff hikes have kept inflation higher than we had anticipated over recent months. But with food inflation set to... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update How are the states faring? While some of the early epicentres of the coronavirus outbreak in India now appear to be getting infections under control, cases are rising quickly in several states that avoided an initial surge... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External and domestic demand struggling to recover India’s monthly goods trade balance swung back into deficit in July, but the fact that it remains small means that there is little concern regarding external stability. Nevertheless, the underlying... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery running out of legs The recovery in India’s industrial sector has stalled. Given the substantial damage caused during the lockdown and the likelihood of a re-imposition of containment measures, the road to normality for... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, but more easing to come The only new step taken by the RBI today was the introduction of a new framework to help struggling borrowers manage their bank debt. The MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Rare trade surplus gives little reason to cheer India’s monthly trade balance swung into its largest monthly surplus on record in June. But this is not something to celebrate since it is the result of continued weakness in domestic demand. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery will be slow and protracted The slump in industrial production eased in May, confirming that the recovery in industry is now underway. But given the likelihood of a renewed tightening in containment measures and the substantial... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a pressing concern Daily price data suggest that food inflation has eased over recent weeks and, with demand also likely to remain depressed, inflation does not appear to be a pressing concern. The focus of policymakers... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update A brief foray into current account surplus India’s current account swung into a rare surplus in Q1. That probably won’t last for long as oil prices rebound, remittances drop and the trade deficit starts to widen again over the coming months... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update BJP building its political strength Recent developments have strengthened the ruling BJP’s hand in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of parliament). This should help to ease the passage of economic reforms, provided that the BJP has the... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Remittance slump would add to economic woes Worsening employment prospects for Indian migrants in the Gulf and the US mean that remittance inflows are likely to drop even as lockdowns are eased. While this won’t have severe ramifications for... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
