India Economics Update At last, the Finance Ministry breaks the shackles India’s Finance Ministry set aside the desire for near-term fiscal consolidation and today announced significant stimulus in the FY21/222 union budget. That should support the economic recovery over... 1st February 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to widen further The widening in India’s goods trade deficit to an 18-month high in December still has further to run, particularly as a recovery in both domestic demand and global oil prices pushes import values... 18th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Current account to return to deficit in 2021 India’s current account is likely to swing from an unprecedented surplus in 2020 back into deficit in 2021 as domestic demand rebounds and oil prices continue to recover. But when it does return, the... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit set to widen further India’s goods trade deficit widened again in November and is set to reach its pre-pandemic levels over the coming months, especially given recent positive developments on a COVID-19 vaccine. But we... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today and made an explicit commitment to keep policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. Markets are too hawkish in expecting modest rate... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Oxford vaccine is a shot in the arm for the economy The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India would significantly improve the near-term economic outlook, and we have revised up our GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022. But the economy will... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment recovery likely to lose steam The rebound in investment in India appears to have been stronger than anticipated over the past few months and we are revising up our estimates of Q3 GDP growth as a result. But the recovery faces... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Export rebound stalls India recorded its largest monthly goods trade deficit since the start of the pandemic in October as the export recovery came to an abrupt halt. Looking ahead, unlike much of Asia, India will not... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA Talks to establish the world’s biggest free-trade agreement, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), are finally expected to conclude at the weekend. While a deal would provide a boost... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Bihar election result boosts reform prospects The BJP’s relatively strong performance in the state election in Bihar suggests that goodwill for the ruling national party remains intact amid India’s largest recession in modern history. Bihar has... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update More evidence of a woeful fiscal response The Finance Ministry’s response to the pandemic has been even smaller than we initially thought. Announced stimulus measures were already meagre in size. It now appears that their impact has been... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Indian banks: the world’s weakest link Out of all the banking sectors in major economies, India’s warrants the most concern. It came into the crisis in the worst shape, and the scale of damage to private balance sheets means it will be one... 29th October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Dovish MPC minutes suggest further easing likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting – in which policy was left unchanged – show that the MPC has turned more dovish on the inflation outlook and that it has reservations about the... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle is not over yet It came as no surprise that the new MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today. But the relatively dovish tone of the statement, along with the dire growth outlook... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Further easing still likely as new MPC takes shape After dragging its heels for several weeks, the government has finally appointed three new members to the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC). Not a great deal is known about their views on monetary... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Encouraging signs of improvement from trade data The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in September came on the back of a decent pick-up in external demand, while domestic demand showed encouraging signs of improvement too. But sustaining the... 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
