India Economics Update Rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and stressed that its latest liquidity-withdrawal measures do not constitute policy tightening. Given our view that the recovery will... 8th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Three points on banking sector liquidity Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Implications of a weak monsoon This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Policy to stay loose despite first signs of MPC dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit no major concern The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in July was due in large part to the continued rebound in imports as containment measures were scaled back further. The trade deficit may widen a little... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI in no rush to tighten policy The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales delay will create a fiscal hole The postponement of the planned privatisation of two state-owned banks to next year has dealt an all-too-familiar blow to the Finance Ministry’s hopes of raising significant revenues from asset sales... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit won’t threaten external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in June came on the back of a rebound in imports amid the lifting of containment measures and the recent rally in global oil prices. But while the economic... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A closer look at India’s vaccine supply projections The government’s latest vaccine supply projections suggest that India could fully vaccinate all adults by year end. But that hinges on optimistic assumptions about production and distribution. Unless... 7th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How much further will inflation rise? The recent jump in India’s consumer price inflation has taken us (and most others) by surprise and we have revised up our near-term forecasts. However, a big chunk of the surge – even in the most... 22nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Resilient remittances will aid the recovery Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Higher female participation to help India outperform There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade shows resilience amid virus restrictions Goods trade data for April add to evidence from elsewhere that that the new round of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the national lockdown last year. 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Current messages from the real-time data Real-time data indicate that industry in India has not been hit as severely as services, and is holding up well compared to a year ago. That’s a reflection of the more targeted restrictions that have... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
