India Economics Update Asset sales delay will create a fiscal hole The postponement of the planned privatisation of two state-owned banks to next year has dealt an all-too-familiar blow to the Finance Ministry’s hopes of raising significant revenues from asset sales... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit won’t threaten external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in June came on the back of a rebound in imports amid the lifting of containment measures and the recent rally in global oil prices. But while the economic... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A closer look at India’s vaccine supply projections The government’s latest vaccine supply projections suggest that India could fully vaccinate all adults by year end. But that hinges on optimistic assumptions about production and distribution. Unless... 7th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How much further will inflation rise? The recent jump in India’s consumer price inflation has taken us (and most others) by surprise and we have revised up our near-term forecasts. However, a big chunk of the surge – even in the most... 22nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Resilient remittances will aid the recovery Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Higher female participation to help India outperform There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade shows resilience amid virus restrictions Goods trade data for April add to evidence from elsewhere that that the new round of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the national lockdown last year. 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Current messages from the real-time data Real-time data indicate that industry in India has not been hit as severely as services, and is holding up well compared to a year ago. That’s a reflection of the more targeted restrictions that have... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spill-overs from India’s COVID-19 crisis The impact of India’s COVID-19 crisis on other EMs through normal economic channels such as trade and financial links should be manageable. The more serious impact will come through delays to vaccine... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response In an unscheduled announcement today, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das unveiled an array of measures aimed at mitigating the economic and financial impact of India’s virus crisis. This Update takes stock... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update State election results fail to move the needle Results of the state elections that have been taking place over the past couple of months are unlikely to have undermined the BJP’s willingness to implement difficult economic reforms, particularly... 3rd May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How badly is the economy being hit? Real-time data on traffic, electricity demand and mobility suggest that, so far at least, India’s virus outbreak has had more of an impact on behaviour than it has on activity. We will continue to... 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest policy tightening a long way off The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s April policy meeting – in which interest rates were left unchanged – show that the MPC is committed to keeping policy accommodative to support the economic recovery... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in gold imports no threat to external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in March came on the back of a surge in monthly gold imports to its highest on record. But this was driven in part by one-off factors. Looking ahead, we... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read