India Economics Update Trade deficit to resume widening before long The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in March was due in large part to a sharp drop in gold imports. Even if gold imports remain low, we still expect the trade and current account deficits to... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update More thoughts on the RBI’s policy shift The RBI’s policy announcement and the introduction of the Standing Deposit Facility has prompted a number of questions from clients on its intended purpose and what it means for monetary policy. This... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI turning less accommodative The MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4.00% today came as no surprise but the introduction of a new policy rate that sets a higher floor for the interest rate corridor... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update State election results could reignite reform agenda The BJP’s performance in India’s state elections keeps it in a strong position nationally to pursue politically-difficult reforms. But it may instead conclude that its strong electoral showing was... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Mapping out the public debt trajectory Worries about India’s public debt trajectory have been growing since the Finance Ministry announced an accommodative Budget for FY22/23. But under reasonable assumptions for nominal GDP and interest... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The recent hawkish turn by many major central banks did not faze the RBI today, which continued to project a dovish tone while keeping policy settings unchanged. But inflation risks are building and... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The UP election and what it means for reforms The upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) – India’s most populous state and one of its most politically important – is already having an impact on economic policy as contentious reforms have been... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Budget should deliver stronger growth and inflation Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivered a more growth-friendly Union Budget than most had expected today. But rather than unveiling measures to shore up support ahead of state elections, new... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A guide to political events in 2022 Korea, the Philippines and India are each holding elections this year that will play a role in setting fiscal and structural reform priorities, including the possible introduction of a universal basic... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Key calls for 2022 As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that Indian GDP growth will accelerate this year. At the same time, inflation is likely to rise more sharply than generally expected... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI still taking baby steps towards tightening The MPC voted to keep policy rates on hold today, opting only to introduce further small measures to withdraw liquidity from the banking sector. With the RBI still focusing primarily on supporting the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Mobile payment takes off The pandemic has triggered a three-fold increase in the use of mobile payments in India. It is unclear whether there has been a corresponding broadening in the number of people using cashless payment... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Annual fiscal deficit will be smaller than budgeted Relative to budget estimates, the cumulative fiscal deficit in rupee terms is much smaller than normal for this time of year, due in large part to decent tax revenues. We think the Finance Ministry... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update MPC fault lines emerge, but doves still in control The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting suggest greater divergence of opinion within the MPC, with two members calling for more definitive steps towards policy normalisation. But most... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Burgeoning trade deficit is not a major concern The sharp widening in India’s goods trade deficit in September was driven in part by an unusually large jump in oil imports that we think will prove a one-off. And with the economic recovery entering... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
