India Economics Update India’s position in a fracturing global economy Since independence, India has preferred to stay unaligned geopolitically. But in a fracturing global economy, the security and macroeconomic benefits of leaning towards the US – and away from China –... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI frontloads again but pace of tightening set to slow The RBI hiked the repo rate by another 50bp (to 5.90%) today and the communications give a clear steer that the tightening cycle still has further to run. But with inflation set to slow, we think the... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Coal shortages could take steam out of economy India is facing renewed concerns about energy supply, fuelled by low inventories of coal. With the economy very reliant on coal for electricity generation, persistent shortages would almost certainly... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update India leading EM rise up the world rankings Emerging markets will account for more than half of global GDP within the next decade. Headlining this, India is on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030. And EMs with rapid... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The RBI today raised the repo rate by 50bps to 5.40% as we had anticipated, and struck a relatively hawkish tone despite inflation surprising to the downside in recent months. It’s clear that the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Five questions and answers on the near-term outlook We’ve recently received several questions from clients on how the near-term outlook for India is shaping up. This Update summarises our big picture views for the next six months or so by providing... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest more frontloading is in store The minutes of the MPC’s June meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 50bps to 4.90% – show that combatting inflation remains the priority and suggest that tightening will continue to be... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit to persist India’s goods trade deficit didn’t widen in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – rather counter-intuitively for a major commodity importer. But that has now started to happen, and... 16th June 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI tightening cycle has further to run The RBI hiked the repo rate by 50bps to 4.90% today, as we had anticipated, and made substantial upward revisions to its near-term inflation forecasts. Further tightening will follow over the coming... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation in May will prove fleeting Headline CPI inflation in India is likely to have dropped in May, primarily due to base effects. But beyond May, we expect inflation to resume rising, reaching over 8% by August. The RBI is likely to... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI intervention will support the rupee The Indian rupee hit a record low against the US dollar today, but the big picture is that RBI intervention has helped it hold up better than most EM currencies recently. Given that the RBI has ample... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Hawks take flight at the RBI The Reserve Bank today turned even more hawkish with an unscheduled, unconventional 40bp hike that takes the repo rate to 4.40%. We had been among the early hawks on Indian monetary policy and were... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight change in priorities The minutes of the MPC’s early April meeting – in which the committee kept the repo rate on hold but introduced a new rate that set a higher floor for the interest rate corridor – confirm that taming... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
