India Economics Update Has Modi already missed his best opportunity? Prime Minister Modi’s first year in office was a mixed bag. The pace of economic reform will need to be stepped up in his second year to justify the investor enthusiasm that greeted his election... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities retreat on domestic concerns India’s financial markets have struggled relative to their emerging market peers over the past few weeks, with the rupee weakening, bond yields edging up and the equity rally losing steam. These moves... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Two years after the taper tantrum: how does India fare now? Two years ago this month the rupee entered a prolonged plunge against the US dollar amid the “taper tantrum”, eventually falling to an all-time low. But in the event of external financing conditions... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reality check for reform agenda Recent failures to amend the domestic tax system and land acquisition laws are the latest examples of the government's reform agenda running into roadblocks over the past few months. This supports our... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank on course to meet 2016 inflation target Inflation is likely to have remained subdued by past standards in April, with a small pick-up in transport inflation being offset by muted food and core price pressures. The big picture is that the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee weakness unlikely to concern policymakers The rupee was one of the worst performing EM currencies against the US dollar in April, but we doubt that this will cause panic among India’s policymakers. Over a longer time horizon the rupee remains... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Investment activity tentatively bouncing back The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure, along with looser monetary policy, should help to support the recent pick-up in investment activity over the coming months. But continued... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The implications of a weak monsoon Forecasts for a weaker-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised concerns about the effect on the wider economy. Although lower rainfall could affect GDP growth and inflation at the margin... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equity rally losing steam After touching record highs in early March, Indian equities have fallen back in recent weeks. Looking ahead, with valuations still looking stretched and uncertainty over the government’s tax policy... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much of a threat is the surge in gold imports? The surge in gold imports last month is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including an unleashing of pent-up demand by buyers that had been expecting tax cuts (which didn’t materialise... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Uncertainty over tax policy could stifle private investment Comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that he plans to raise nearly US$6.5bn by retrospectively taxing foreign companies would, if acted upon, represent a major relapse on economic reforms, and... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s export targets are unlikely to be met The government’s ambitious plans to almost double exports by 2020 from current levels are no bad thing, but in truth the targets look unrealistic. Reforms that would significantly boost export... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is rising food inflation a concern? Inflation is likely to have accelerated in March, in large part due to rising food prices caused by recent unseasonable rains. But weekly data suggest that the majority of the inflation spike may have... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Door for further rate cuts still open Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on March’s rate cut in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.50% and 6.50% respectively. But further rate cuts are... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Why aren’t banks lending more? Recent cuts to policy interest rates should eventually help to boost bank lending in India, the weakness of which has been a significant cause of the economic slowdown over the past few years. But... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
