India Economics Update Investment activity tentatively bouncing back The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure, along with looser monetary policy, should help to support the recent pick-up in investment activity over the coming months. But continued... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The implications of a weak monsoon Forecasts for a weaker-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised concerns about the effect on the wider economy. Although lower rainfall could affect GDP growth and inflation at the margin... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equity rally losing steam After touching record highs in early March, Indian equities have fallen back in recent weeks. Looking ahead, with valuations still looking stretched and uncertainty over the government’s tax policy... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much of a threat is the surge in gold imports? The surge in gold imports last month is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including an unleashing of pent-up demand by buyers that had been expecting tax cuts (which didn’t materialise... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Uncertainty over tax policy could stifle private investment Comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that he plans to raise nearly US$6.5bn by retrospectively taxing foreign companies would, if acted upon, represent a major relapse on economic reforms, and... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s export targets are unlikely to be met The government’s ambitious plans to almost double exports by 2020 from current levels are no bad thing, but in truth the targets look unrealistic. Reforms that would significantly boost export... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is rising food inflation a concern? Inflation is likely to have accelerated in March, in large part due to rising food prices caused by recent unseasonable rains. But weekly data suggest that the majority of the inflation spike may have... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Door for further rate cuts still open Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on March’s rate cut in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.50% and 6.50% respectively. But further rate cuts are... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Why aren’t banks lending more? Recent cuts to policy interest rates should eventually help to boost bank lending in India, the weakness of which has been a significant cause of the economic slowdown over the past few years. But... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows set to remain strong Concerns about destabilising capital flows to emerging markets such as India have again come to the fore, but one factor that often gets overlooked is the role of overseas remittances. Remittance... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What should we look at if we don’t trust the GDP data? The recent revisions to historic GDP data have been the source of much confusion, not least within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In this Update, we look at four indicators that the RBI appears to... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the RBI meet its new inflation targets? Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for February should show that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on course to meet its target for the start of 2016, which has now been formalised under... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan makes case for loosening to continue The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut its policy rates today was unscheduled but not entirely a surprise: we had argued that there was a significant chance of an inter-meeting cut following the... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s capital spending plans face hurdles The Finance Ministry’s plans outlined in the Budget to significantly ramp up capital expenditure are to be welcomed, but fully implementing them will be a tough challenge. Potential impediments... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read