India Economics Update Financial markets outperform EM counterparts India’s financial markets have outperfomed their emerging market peers over the past few weeks. In contrast to other EM currencies, the rupee has held up well. At the same time, India’s equity markets... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Upbeat outlook for remittances The prospects of “Grexit” and interest rate hikes in the US have cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Familiar constraints could stall rise in public investment There are signs that the government’s plans to ramp up public investment over the coming years are bearing fruit. However, it is early days and, looking ahead, fully implementing the plans will be a... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in food inflation should prove fleeting Inflation is likely to have picked up in June. The knee-jerk response may be to link it to the monsoon, but the rise in headline inflation is due more to the collapse in food prices a year ago... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Market stability highlights improvement in external position Indian markets have been stable over the past few days, even in comparison to the muted reaction in global market to events in Greece. Looking ahead, even if the worsening situation there causes... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the monsoon session of parliament be another washout? The monsoon session of parliament, due to begin in mid-July, has taken on extra significance given that the government's reform agenda has recently run into roadblocks. Top of the list of priorities... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s plans to inject more capital into local banks are a positive step, but they are too limited to revive the ailing sector. Larger capital injections are needed to strengthen banks’... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee likely to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has rallied in the past few days, but we expect the currency to come under some pressure as the US Fed begins to tighten policy later this year. However, given the huge improvement in... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is the government’s FDI policy bearing fruit? The lifting of restrictions on foreign direct investment into a number of sectors of the economy has been one of the successes of Prime Minister Modi’s reform agenda so far. FDI inflows have picked up... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities diminishing India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, along with the pick-up in net FDI inflows, this has helped to boost the overall balance of payments position to its largest surplus since 2008. With... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Consumers stifled by banking sector and labour market woes Indian consumers have struggled in recent months despite the tailwinds of lower inflation and reductions in interest rates. This can be explained in part by continued problems in the labour market and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon threat to inflation overplayed Inflation is likely to have stayed subdued in May. There are rising concerns that a weaker-than-normal monsoon could push inflation up in the months ahead. But we remain sanguine: many factors in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Labour market reform: can Mr Modi learn lessons from the states? Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s first year in power, but there are signs of improvement at state level, most notably... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PMIs pointing to lacklustre activity India's May PMI readings for both the manufacturing and services sectors suggest that activity remains subdued by past standards. The PMIs add to the list of indicators that contradict the official... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rate-cutting cycle has a little further to run Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the repo rate for the third time this year to 7.25% is unlikely to be the last in the current loosening cycle. But the RBI can't be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
