India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Run-up to Bihar election a bellwether for reform appetite India’s increasingly decentralised system means that state elections such as the upcoming vote in Bihar have a bearing on economic policy. Perhaps more significant, the need to campaign at the local... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are still low The rise in India’s current account deficit in Q2 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. The important point from a wider perspective is that the deficit remains small. This, combined with the... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST deadline unlikely to be met The long-awaited implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India could bring significant benefits to the economy. But a decade after it was first proposed, there are still a number of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Favourable base effects will soon fade Inflation is likely to have edged down in August, due in large part to favourable base effects caused by the spike in food prices a year ago. But these effects are soon likely to fade, which will push... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal position not a major concern for now The rapid expansion of the government deficit in the early part of this fiscal year has led to some concerns about the Finance Ministry’s ability to meet its budgeted target. These concerns are... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India is not the new China The raft of comments and media reports arguing that India is set to become the new engine of global growth following the recent struggles in China were given more fuel earlier this week with the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government meddling putting RBI credibility at risk India’s Finance Ministry is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the central bank’s independence at risk. Any loss of credibility for the RBI... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee drops to two-year low The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in August to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike two years ago, we see little reason for policymakers to panic. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has bank lending turned a corner? The sharp slowdown in bank lending to the private sector over the past four years appears to have bottomed out, as cuts to policy rates gradually feed through to commercial banks’ lending rates. But... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reform agenda hits another roadblock The ruling BJP's efforts to push through important economic reforms in the monsoon session of parliament, which finishes today, have been largely unsuccessful. Looking ahead, with attention soon... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic over rupee sell-off The rupee has depreciated to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum" this morning, but we don't think that this will cause panic among policymakers. Since the start of the year, the rupee has... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Base effects to drag down inflation Large base effects are likely to have dragged down inflation in July. The Reserve Bank has stated that it will be looking through base effects over the coming months when making policy decisions... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's rate-cutting cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep interest rates on hold today does not signal the end of the current loosening cycle. We are forecasting one more 25bp cut in this cycle, which would bring... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bleak outlook for exports The slump in India’s exports over the past few months has been caused in part by the sharp fall in global oil prices and the relative strength of the US dollar, two trends that are unlikely to be... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Activity weak enough to justify another rate cut The alternative economic indicators that the Reserve Bank of India is now putting more weight on to assess the health of the economy still point to weakness. They will convince policymakers, we think... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
