India Economics Update India is not the new China The raft of comments and media reports arguing that India is set to become the new engine of global growth following the recent struggles in China were given more fuel earlier this week with the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government meddling putting RBI credibility at risk India’s Finance Ministry is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the central bank’s independence at risk. Any loss of credibility for the RBI... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee drops to two-year low The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in August to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike two years ago, we see little reason for policymakers to panic. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has bank lending turned a corner? The sharp slowdown in bank lending to the private sector over the past four years appears to have bottomed out, as cuts to policy rates gradually feed through to commercial banks’ lending rates. But... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reform agenda hits another roadblock The ruling BJP's efforts to push through important economic reforms in the monsoon session of parliament, which finishes today, have been largely unsuccessful. Looking ahead, with attention soon... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic over rupee sell-off The rupee has depreciated to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum" this morning, but we don't think that this will cause panic among policymakers. Since the start of the year, the rupee has... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Base effects to drag down inflation Large base effects are likely to have dragged down inflation in July. The Reserve Bank has stated that it will be looking through base effects over the coming months when making policy decisions... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's rate-cutting cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep interest rates on hold today does not signal the end of the current loosening cycle. We are forecasting one more 25bp cut in this cycle, which would bring... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bleak outlook for exports The slump in India’s exports over the past few months has been caused in part by the sharp fall in global oil prices and the relative strength of the US dollar, two trends that are unlikely to be... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Activity weak enough to justify another rate cut The alternative economic indicators that the Reserve Bank of India is now putting more weight on to assess the health of the economy still point to weakness. They will convince policymakers, we think... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Financial markets outperform EM counterparts India’s financial markets have outperfomed their emerging market peers over the past few weeks. In contrast to other EM currencies, the rupee has held up well. At the same time, India’s equity markets... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Upbeat outlook for remittances The prospects of “Grexit” and interest rate hikes in the US have cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Familiar constraints could stall rise in public investment There are signs that the government’s plans to ramp up public investment over the coming years are bearing fruit. However, it is early days and, looking ahead, fully implementing the plans will be a... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in food inflation should prove fleeting Inflation is likely to have picked up in June. The knee-jerk response may be to link it to the monsoon, but the rise in headline inflation is due more to the collapse in food prices a year ago... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Market stability highlights improvement in external position Indian markets have been stable over the past few days, even in comparison to the muted reaction in global market to events in Greece. Looking ahead, even if the worsening situation there causes... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the monsoon session of parliament be another washout? The monsoon session of parliament, due to begin in mid-July, has taken on extra significance given that the government's reform agenda has recently run into roadblocks. Top of the list of priorities... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read