India Economics Update Lower privatisation targets would boost credibility With only two months of this fiscal year remaining, the finance ministry’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks impossible to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump looks set to continue India’s trade deficit remained in check in December but this positive headline story masks the fact that exports continue to contract sharply. With progress on the reforms needed to support a vibrant... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the impact of falling oil prices As India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, the continued slide in global oil prices should ensure that the improvement in the current account position is sustained. Domestically, the... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges A recent pick-up in domestic production and a fall in imports of coal have led to suggestions that the government is on track to meet its target of doubling output by 2020. But the sector continues to... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation on the rise Inflation is likely to have risen in December on account of accelerating food inflation and the government’s incremental hiking of fuel duties even as global oil prices continue to slump. Further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2016 In our first India Watch of 2016, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. The lagged effect of earlier policy loosening and weakness in global commodity prices should... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low The widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. Over a four-quarter sum, the deficit narrowed and, given also that FDI inflows remain strong, there is... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed tightening in their stride Financial markets in India have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What is holding up the Goods and Services Tax? Passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India continues to be delayed by major issues ranging from disagreements over the tax rate itself to which items will be covered. Given this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit looks sustainable despite export weakness India’s trade deficit remained stable in November as the continued slump in exports was offset by another collapse in imports. With this trend set to continue, the overall current account position... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Public sector pay rise to pose another inflation risk Inflation is likely to have accelerated in November, as last year’s slump in global oil prices begins to drop out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, the Pay Commission’s recommendation for a... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's faith in finance ministry is misplaced The RBI is expressing a high degree of faith in the finance ministry’s ability to offset a rising public sector wage bill by boosting tax revenues or trimming other forms of current spending. We fear... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, rather than just being on pause, we maintain our view that the loosening cycle is now at an end. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New bankruptcy code would be a big step forward Plans to overhaul India’s archaic bankruptcy laws, due to be discussed in the upcoming winter session of parliament, would be a major step towards creating a more favourable business climate and... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee to continue drifting lower The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar over the past month and, looking ahead, the currency could drift a little lower as the US Fed begins to tighten policy. But given the big... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s trade deficit narrowed in October and, looking ahead, there are reasons to think that the import bill will remain in check. Given this, the overall current account position looks unlikely to... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
