India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges A jump in domestic production and fall in imports of coal this year have led some to suggest that thegovernment is on track to meet its target of doubling output from end-2014 levels by 2020. But the... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market rally likely to run out of steam Indian bond yields have recently fallen to their lowest levels since 2013, in large part due to anticipation that the successor to Governor Raghuram Rajan at the RBI will be more dovish. But with the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump ends but sharp rebound unlikely Trade data for June showed positive growth in export values for the first time since the end of 2014. But with progress on the reforms needed to create a vibrant export sector still slow, the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to slow but stay above target We think that Indian consumer price inflation dropped in June, but it is likely to have remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. There is little reason to think that... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Passage of Goods and Services Tax edging closer Recent changes to the composition of the Rajya Sabha have raised the likelihood that the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill will finally be passed. But there are still sticking points, the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove harder to implement Measures announced last week to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help at the margins to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Who will succeed Governor Rajan at the RBI? Following the announcement earlier this month from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will be stepping down at the end of his first term in September, speculation has been... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets calm as Governor Rajan heads for the exit Th e market fallout from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s announcement that he will step down at the end of his current contract in September has so far been limited to a slight drop in the rupee and a... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data show further strengthening in external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1, along with another rise in foreign direct investment inflows, leaves the economy looking well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump close to an end but long-term prospects subdued India's trade data for May suggest that the prolonged contraction in exports in US dollar terms has almost run its course. But with progress on the reforms needed to create a vibrant export sector... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut Consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in May, but not by enough to bring it below the RBI’s 5.0% target for March 2017. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.50% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Another look at the ailing banking sector The sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) in Q1 does not indicate that there has been a sudden deterioration in asset quality in India, but instead suggests a greater recognition of stressed... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar over the past month and, with the US Fed likely to tighten policy again over the coming months, the currency could depreciate a little more . But... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State election results brighten reform outlook Regional parties have dominated the state elections held over the past month, but there has also been an apparent strengthening of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP at the local level. On... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
