India Economics Update RBI is right to turn less dovish Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But further ahead, price pressures are set to build. This was acknowledged by... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI brings loosening cycle to an end The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was in line with our non-consensus forecast and it signals the end of the loosening cycle. Looking ahead, with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY17/18 budget: slower pace of consolidation The finance ministry faced a delicate balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY17/18 as it aimed to boost demand while also demonstrating its commitment to fiscal prudence. Given this, it is... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: a tricky balancing act The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY17/18, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be aiming to boost demand following... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Decent start to 2017 Financial markets in India have made a relatively bright start to 2017. The rupee and bond yields have been stable, while equities have rallied so far in January. Looking ahead however, prospects are... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Going cashless? The government’s demonetisation measures have led to a jump in card and digital transactions, but this has not been anywhere near large enough to offset the slowdown in cash spending. That said, it... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed significantly in December, and a number of factors should ensure that it remains in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Extinguishing RBI’s liabilities unlikely to bring much benefit India’s government has moved to strip the legal status of banknotes affected by demonetisation that are still in circulation. This would have the result of extinguishing some of the RBI’s liabilities... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation pushing prices down Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. However, further ahead, demonetisation could push inflation up by leading to... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PMIs suggest sizeable but not devastating demonetisation impact India’s December PMIs for both the manufacturing and services sectors suggest that the government’s demonetisation measures have had a significant, but not catastrophic, impact on economic activity. 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2017 In our first Watch of 2017, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming 12 months. The government’s demonetisation measures will lead to some weakness at the beginning of the year... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed rate hike in their stride Financial markets in India have taken last week’s decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in a year in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens more... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues, but government target too ambitious Trade data for November show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s target of nearly doubling export values from... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Balance of payments position remains secure The narrowing in India’s current account deficit over a four-quarter sum in Q3, along with another rise in net FDI inflows, leaves the economy looking well-placed to cope in the event of a renewed... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term We think that consumer price inflation dropped in November as the government’s demonetisation measures are likely to have led to some price discounting. However, demonetisation could boost inflation... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation Having previously shown that it was willing to prioritise growth even at the risk of missing targets for inflation, the RBI’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold despite the downside risks... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
