India Economics Update How much of a threat is the rise in gold imports? The jump in gold imports over the past couple of months is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including a rebound in purchases following demonetisation and greater consumer demand ahead... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows should remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to more than 3% of GDP in 2016 – almost twice as large as net capital inflows. Though there are some risks... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rising inflation could prompt repo rate hike Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen again in March, due in large part to another acceleration in food inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI shifts towards tighter policy The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep its benchmark repo rate on hold today, but the hike to the reverse repo rate represents a shift towards tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, with... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lessons from Rajasthan’s reforms Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s term in office so far. However, there are signs of improvement at state level, most... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST a step closer to reality The passage of key legislation through the Lok Sabha marks another important step towards implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The legislation also provides greater clarity on the exact... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data suggest low external vulnerabilities While there was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q4, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex closes in on record high Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, and the Sensex is now within touching distance of its all-time high. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM equity markets... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position continues to improve India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to a six-month low in February. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold and oil likely to stay subdued by past standards, the trade deficit... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update “Bad bank” alone would have limited impact The creation of a “bad bank” in India would help restructure the loans of India’s most heavily-indebted firms and should facilitate a clean-up of the balance sheets of commercial banks. But the... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh brightens reform prospects The landslide victory for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh state assembly election suggests that political goodwill towards the ruling national party remains intact, and boosts... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to rise for first time since demonetisation Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in February for the first time since demonetisation, due to a pick-up in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising core inflation could prompt the RBI to... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is a Universal Basic Income feasible? The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention in recent weeks. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The importance of state elections The raft of state elections currently taking place in India is likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But more significant, the outcome of the state elections – in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond yields jump after RBI surprises markets Indian bond yields have risen since the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets in early February by keeping rates on hold and signalling the end of its loosening cycle. Looking ahead, yields are... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues Trade data for January show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s long-term target still looks out of reach... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
