India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q1, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain strong. Given this, the... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Loan waivers are setting a dangerous precedent The announcement over the weekend of a debt write-off for farmers in Maharashtra extends the precedent set in Uttar Pradesh in April. Other states may now follow, at a significant fiscal cost. 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government pressure risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans face hurdles Renewed talk of the government ramping up its privatisation drive is welcome, but its aim of raising INR725bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies this year still looks unrealistic. In... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation close to bottoming out Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in May due in large part to another drop in food inflation, and we have nudged down our full-year inflation forecast in response to the weakness in the... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unmoved by weakness of GDP and inflation data The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep policy unchanged today despite the weakness of the latest inflation and GDP data. However, the less hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the export recovery continue? The recovery in India’s exports over the past few months is due in large part (and somewhat surprisingly) to a rise in global oil prices as well as the strength of the rupee, which has boosted... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex continues to surge Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting a fresh all-time high in mid-May. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New measures unlikely to revive banking sector New powers granted to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could in theory speed up resolution of cases of stressed assets that have burdened the banking sector in recent years. But the measures are likely... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit not a cause for concern India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in over two years in April. But this was in large part due to temporary factors. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Questions still hang over accuracy of IP data The revisions and rebasing of India’s wholesale price and industrial production data align them with other indicators used in India and make them more useful for international comparisons. But while... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove more difficult Recent measures to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far. But the government may now... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation in April to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased a touch in April, due in large part to a drop in fuel inflation. But this is likely to prove temporary. Further ahead, rising core price pressures... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The release of an Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a “normal” monsoon this year has led to a rush of commentary on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee surges to 20-month high The rally in the Indian rupee since the start of 2017 has continued in recent weeks, driving the currency to its highest rate against the US dollar in almost two years. While we doubt that the rally... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Farmer loan waivers a cause for concern The recent approval of a bailout package for indebted farmers in Uttar Pradesh fulfils an election pledge from the BJP, but should also raise concern. The unconditional debt write-off could set a... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
