India Economics Update Can the export recovery continue? The recovery in India’s exports over the past few months is due in large part (and somewhat surprisingly) to a rise in global oil prices as well as the strength of the rupee, which has boosted... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex continues to surge Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting a fresh all-time high in mid-May. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New measures unlikely to revive banking sector New powers granted to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could in theory speed up resolution of cases of stressed assets that have burdened the banking sector in recent years. But the measures are likely... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit not a cause for concern India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in over two years in April. But this was in large part due to temporary factors. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Questions still hang over accuracy of IP data The revisions and rebasing of India’s wholesale price and industrial production data align them with other indicators used in India and make them more useful for international comparisons. But while... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove more difficult Recent measures to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far. But the government may now... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation in April to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased a touch in April, due in large part to a drop in fuel inflation. But this is likely to prove temporary. Further ahead, rising core price pressures... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The release of an Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a “normal” monsoon this year has led to a rush of commentary on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee surges to 20-month high The rally in the Indian rupee since the start of 2017 has continued in recent weeks, driving the currency to its highest rate against the US dollar in almost two years. While we doubt that the rally... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Farmer loan waivers a cause for concern The recent approval of a bailout package for indebted farmers in Uttar Pradesh fulfils an election pledge from the BJP, but should also raise concern. The unconditional debt write-off could set a... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much of a threat is the rise in gold imports? The jump in gold imports over the past couple of months is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including a rebound in purchases following demonetisation and greater consumer demand ahead... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows should remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to more than 3% of GDP in 2016 – almost twice as large as net capital inflows. Though there are some risks... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rising inflation could prompt repo rate hike Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen again in March, due in large part to another acceleration in food inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI shifts towards tighter policy The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep its benchmark repo rate on hold today, but the hike to the reverse repo rate represents a shift towards tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, with... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lessons from Rajasthan’s reforms Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s term in office so far. However, there are signs of improvement at state level, most... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST a step closer to reality The passage of key legislation through the Lok Sabha marks another important step towards implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The legislation also provides greater clarity on the exact... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read