India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight inflation and fiscal worries The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) October policy meeting reveal that most members expressed caution about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with inflation... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position will remain comfortable India’s trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September. Looking ahead, there are several reasons to think that it will stay in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Calculating the potential fiscal cost of loan waivers Announcements of debt write-offs for farmers in a number of Indian states in recent months have grabbed the headlines. In this Update, we attempt to calculate the fiscal cost of the announced waivers... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST gets political A number of recent tweaks to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) appear to be attempts to shore up support for the BJP ahead of the upcoming state in election in Gujarat rather than attempts to... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core price pressures are building Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in September, due in large part to another rise in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, renewed loosening unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations by keeping its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today. It also acknowledged the growing upside risks to the inflation outlook. As such... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Plans for universal electricity access will fall short Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of a new project aimed at “electrifying” all of India’s households by the end of 2018 has grabbed headlines this month. But even if this ambitious target is... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gold imports likely to ease The strength of gold imports in recent months is the result of temporary issues related to the new GST rather than buoyant underlying demand. As these issues get resolved, we expect gold imports to... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond yields continue to rise Indian bond yields have continued to rise so far in September. Looking ahead, with the RBI ramping up its open market sales and no scope for further policy loosening, we think that bond yields will... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening current account deficit no major concern While there was a widening in India’s current account deficit in Q2, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the economy looks... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Banking sector woes to persist Recent comments from former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan mirror our longheld view that the key to reviving the ailing domestic banking sector is for the government to infuse... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has demonetisation been a complete failure? On the face of it, demonetisation has been an abject failure given its lack of success in rooting out illicit wealth while also causing growth to slow sharply. But demonetisation is likely to have... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to rise again Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in August, due in large part to a sharp jump in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the strength of the rupee be sustained? Strong inflows into India’s equity and bond markets have been a key reason behind the strengthening of the rupee against the US dollar in recent months. But there are reasons to think that these... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in bond yields has further to run The rise in Indian bond yields over the past couple of weeks reverses only a small portion of the drop since the start of 2017. But looking ahead, with the RBI ramping up its open market sales and... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank’s MPC minutes show inflation concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) August policy meeting show that, despite voting to cut interest rates, most members remain cautious about the outlook for inflation. Indeed, with... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
