India Economics Update Markets shrug off ratings upgrade Indian markets appear to have taken last week’s ratings upgrade from Moody’s in their stride, with the rupee recording only very small gains against the US dollar and the 10-year bond yield staying... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Moody’s highlights positives, overlooks concerns Moody’s has highlighted a number of genuine positive recent developments in India as justifications for a ratings upgrade – though its inclusion of demonetisation among them should raise some eyebrows... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit unlikely to widen further India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in October, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while commodity... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation will resume accelerating soon We think that consumer price inflation held steady in October as a slight rise in food inflation was offset by a drop in fuel inflation. But with core price pressures building, inflation is likely to... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: one year on A year after the Indian government’s surprise announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being cancelled, it is clear that the negative impact on incomes and output was substantial –... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gujarat election an important bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming votes in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bank recapitalisation a rare success in faltering reforms The bank recapitalisation package unveiled last week and the rise in India’s ranking in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey announced today have bolstered Mr Modi’s reform credentials. But... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to switch to a producer price index A recent study from a government-appointed working group has reignited the debate over whether India should switch to a producer price index (PPI) to measure inflation at the early stages of the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Initial thoughts on the recapitalisation package A large-scale recapitalisation plan announced yesterday by the government is the most significant measure yet to deal with India’s banking sector malaise. That said, the package will come at a fiscal... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further rupee weakness likely The Indian rupee has depreciated over the past few weeks, and recently dropped to a six-month low against the US dollar. Looking ahead, the currency could weaken a little more. But India’s reasonably... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight inflation and fiscal worries The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) October policy meeting reveal that most members expressed caution about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with inflation... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position will remain comfortable India’s trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September. Looking ahead, there are several reasons to think that it will stay in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Calculating the potential fiscal cost of loan waivers Announcements of debt write-offs for farmers in a number of Indian states in recent months have grabbed the headlines. In this Update, we attempt to calculate the fiscal cost of the announced waivers... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST gets political A number of recent tweaks to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) appear to be attempts to shore up support for the BJP ahead of the upcoming state in election in Gujarat rather than attempts to... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core price pressures are building Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in September, due in large part to another rise in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, renewed loosening unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations by keeping its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today. It also acknowledged the growing upside risks to the inflation outlook. As such... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read