India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY18/19, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be under pressure to loosen policy ahead... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A mixed start to the year Indian financial markets have had a mixed start to the year with equities surging, the rupee remaining stable against the US dollar, and bonds continuing to sell-off. Looking ahead, we think that... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss fiscal deficit target India’s fiscal deficit has overshot the central government target so far in FY17/18. This doesn’t necessarily signal that the target will be missed – revenues tend to get ramped up in the final months... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to worry about the trade deficit? India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in December, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FDI measures to have limited success Historically, a low level of foreign investment has been one factor constraining the productive potential of India’s economy. The Modi government has made some progress in addressing this. But FDI... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of rising oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to accelerate again We think that consumer price inflation rose again in December, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build, which could prompt the Reserve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes express inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) December policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with consumer... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2018 In our final Watch of this year, we outline the prospects for India’s economy in 2018. We expect growth to accelerate, due to a pick-up in private consumption as well as looser fiscal policy. However... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further After reaching a three-year high in October, India’s trade deficit narrowed a touch in November. The shortfall is likely to narrow further over the coming months. Exports should continue to rebound... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 over a four-quarter sum, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from markets in 2018 Indian financial markets have had a mixed year in 2017. Equities have surged and the rupee has strengthened a touch, but bonds have sold off. Looking ahead to 2018, we think that equities are unlikely... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in inflation has further to run We think that consumer price inflation rose again in November, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. With core price pressures also continuing to build, the Reserve Bank may have to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening The RBI kept its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today, defying calls from prominent members of the government for further rate cuts. In fact, with core price pressures building, we think the debate may... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to develop corporate bond market The development of a corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read