India Economics Update Local markets unable to escape global rout Indian financial markets have not been able to escape the recent turmoil in global markets, with equities dropping sharply and the rupee weakening against the US dollar. Looking ahead, we expect... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes reiterate inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) February policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with core... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit unlikely to widen much further India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level since the taper tantrum in January. But we don’t think this is reason to panic just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank is right to turn more hawkish Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated again in January, due to another rise in food inflation. But core price pressures are also continuing to build. This was acknowledged by the RBI... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI turns more hawkish The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise but it sounded notably more hawkish in the policy statement. This supports our non-consensus view that rate hikes are likely... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY18/19 budget: fiscal deficit targets relaxed The finance ministry faced a tricky balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY18/19 as it aimed to shore up popular support ahead of a busy 18 months of elections while also demonstrating... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY18/19, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be under pressure to loosen policy ahead... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A mixed start to the year Indian financial markets have had a mixed start to the year with equities surging, the rupee remaining stable against the US dollar, and bonds continuing to sell-off. Looking ahead, we think that... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss fiscal deficit target India’s fiscal deficit has overshot the central government target so far in FY17/18. This doesn’t necessarily signal that the target will be missed – revenues tend to get ramped up in the final months... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to worry about the trade deficit? India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in December, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FDI measures to have limited success Historically, a low level of foreign investment has been one factor constraining the productive potential of India’s economy. The Modi government has made some progress in addressing this. But FDI... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of rising oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to accelerate again We think that consumer price inflation rose again in December, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build, which could prompt the Reserve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes express inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) December policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with consumer... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2018 In our final Watch of this year, we outline the prospects for India’s economy in 2018. We expect growth to accelerate, due to a pick-up in private consumption as well as looser fiscal policy. However... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
