India Economics Update Investment growth entering a softer patch Investment held up well in the first half of the year but the recent moderation in credit growth and the messages from the latest survey data suggest that it is going to enter a softer patch over the... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The implications of a severe El Niño for India A severe El Niño event could be the harbinger of weak monsoon rains in India. This wouldn’t have as big an economic impact as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it would harm employment... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are diminishing The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result... 28th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update India headlining EM rise up the global rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Which states could benefit from “friend-shoring”? In a fracturing global economy, India stands out as a prime location for the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains out of China. The manufacturing powerhouses of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending a growing risk The sharp rise in unsecured bank lending has probably helped to support consumption and boosted bank profitability over recent quarters. But it also leaves the banking sector at risk of rising... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Services exports supporting external position The recent strength of services exports has helped to offset much of the impact of the drop in goods exports and – along with a pull-back in import values – is another reason to think that the current... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today belied the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline inflation set... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities likely to ease The widening in India’s current account deficit last year, to 2.4% of GDP, was not as significant as many had feared in the context of the surge in commodity prices. Looking ahead, we think the... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read