India Economics Update A see-saw month for the bond market Over the past month, there have been significant gyrations in India’s bond market. A drop in yields in the first half of April has been followed by a sharp jump more recently, exacerbated by a hawkish... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight upside risks to inflation The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s April policy meeting show that, despite the recent drop in headline inflation, the MPC is still concerned about the upside risks to the outlook. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans facing turbulence The government has set an ambitious privatisation target for FY18/19, emboldened by exceeding target last year. But meeting this year’s target is dependent on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s trade deficit widened in March, but we think it will still remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India unlikely to be labelled “currency manipulator” India has not been spared the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US, with the most notable action so far being the challenge to India’s use of export subsidies at the WTO. However... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to expand corporate bond market A bigger corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the banking... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon Early forecasts of “average” levels of rainfall during this year’s monsoon have led to a rush of speculation on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to revision and, in any... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core inflation to remain elevated Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a further drop in food inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, but tighter policy on the horizon The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates in... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Prospects for the rural economy are bright After taking a significant hit in the aftermath of demonetisation in late 2016, India’s rural economy has regained momentum in recent months. Future prospects for the rural economy look bright, in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities likely to fall further Indian equities have continued to drop so far in March, even as many other major stock markets have stabilised after the turbulence in February. Looking ahead, we expect Indian equities to fall a bit... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Should we be worried about capital flows? A drop in foreign direct investment inflows and a pick-up in portfolio inflows into India has led to concerns that the economy is once again becoming vulnerable to a sudden halt in foreign financing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit stabilises as protectionist clouds gather India is one of many economies facing a more protectionist stance from the US. Its dependence on exports to the US is low though, an inadvertent positive stemming from its failure to develop a world... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PNB scandal highlights need for governance reforms The fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank, India’s second largest state-owned bank, is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector, including the recapitalisation package... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in headline inflation to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a drop in food and fuel inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections come into focus Prime Minister Modi is facing his busiest year of state elections in 2018. Elections that are due to take place this year will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and will... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
