India Economics Update Privatisation plans fail to take off The government’s record privatisation target set for this year is dependent in part on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. But with no firms having shown any serious interest in making a bid... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bankruptcy code finding its feet After a few teething problems in its early stages, India’s new bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic about the rupee The slide in the rupee since the start of the year has raised concerns in some quarters over a repeat of the “Taper Tantrum”, which began five years ago today. But this seems unlikely. The external... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s goods trade deficit held steady in April, and we think it will remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP election surge in Karnataka boosts reform prospects A strong showing in the Karnataka state election suggests that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP retains significant goodwill among the electorate. Mr Modi’s record to date suggests that he will continue to... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the fiscal cost of loan waivers The trend of political parties in India promising loans waivers to farmers ahead of state elections seems increasingly well entrenched. As a result, the fiscal costs are continuing to mount. We... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to resume accelerating Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build. We are one of only a handful of forecasters... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Karnataka election a key bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming vote in Karnataka can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a convincing... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India still well short of universal electricity access The government announced over the weekend that it has successfully managed to electrify all villages in India, meeting its deadline of 1st May 2018 that it set three years ago. But in reality, a large... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows to remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to 3% of GDP in 2017 – larger than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Though there are some risks... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A see-saw month for the bond market Over the past month, there have been significant gyrations in India’s bond market. A drop in yields in the first half of April has been followed by a sharp jump more recently, exacerbated by a hawkish... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight upside risks to inflation The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s April policy meeting show that, despite the recent drop in headline inflation, the MPC is still concerned about the upside risks to the outlook. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans facing turbulence The government has set an ambitious privatisation target for FY18/19, emboldened by exceeding target last year. But meeting this year’s target is dependent on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s trade deficit widened in March, but we think it will still remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India unlikely to be labelled “currency manipulator” India has not been spared the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US, with the most notable action so far being the challenge to India’s use of export subsidies at the WTO. However... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to expand corporate bond market A bigger corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the banking... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read