India Economics Update RBI delivers pre-election rate cut The RBI’s new governor Shaktikanta Das has delivered what the Modi government was hoping for. The “calibrated tightening” stance was jettisoned at his first policy meeting today in favour of a rate... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Interim budget plans lack substance The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget today to shore up popular support ahead of the general election with proposals to boost rural incomes and cut income tax. But it is also... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from the interim budget The finance ministry will be keen to include some election sweeteners in the interim budget that is due on 1st February. But it will also want to demonstrate fiscal rectitude. The most likely outcome... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 10-month low in December and, with oil prices likely to fall further, we think the shortfall will shrink a little more over the coming months. In turn... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The recent weakness of headline consumer price inflation, which we think dropped a little further in December, has undermined the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But we are more... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed a touch in November and, with oil prices likely to stay lower, we think that the deficit will shrink further over the coming months. 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Appointment of Modi loyalist a worrying step for RBI The first briefing from the RBI’s new governor, Shaktikanta Das, sought to provide assurance that the central bank will continue to prioritise inflation fighting. But his background at the finance... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections raise prospect of populist shift by Modi A disappointing set of state election results for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP suggests that the ruling national party has lost some goodwill and the risk now is that, in response, fiscal (and... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI governor’s resignation a blow to policy credibility The resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel signals that the government has come out on top in its dispute with the central bank, but at the cost of undermining the RBI’s credibility and its inflation... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil price drop to strengthen current account position India’s current account deficit widened in Q3 but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices having dropped sharply since then, the deficit will remain... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased again in November due to a sharp drop in fuel price inflation. But with core inflation likely to remain elevated for a while yet, we think the... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has a little further to run The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept rates on hold today, but continued to flag several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and maintained the hawkish description of... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions underline recent strength The revised GDP data for the past decade that have just been released suggest that recent growth has been further above India’s sustainable rate than previously thought. This underlines why the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI and government signal tentative truce The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government found common ground on some of the points of contention between them at the Bank’s board meeting yesterday. But key issues remain unresolved, and the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to narrow India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in October but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices falling and the rupee having weakened in trade... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections a test of BJP’s popularity Upcoming state elections in India will, as ever, have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. They will also go some way to determining whether the ruling BJP will be able to gain... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
