India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no cause for alarm India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in March but, with oil prices likely to fall, we think the deficit will remain contained over the coming months. In turn, that should help to keep... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in March, even if, as we suspect, it rose slightly as food inflation continues to pick up. The RBI will almost certainly follow up its cumulative 50bp of... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers another pre-election gift The RBI has delivered another pre-election gift to the government by lowering rates at a second successive meeting. A low level of headline inflation provided justification for the move. But with core... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Current account deficit to remain in check India’s current account deficit widened at the end of 2018 but this shouldn’t reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices likely to fall, the deficit will remain at a comfortable... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Smaller trade deficit is here to stay India’s monthly goods trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low in February and, with oil prices set to remain low, we think the shortfall will remain small over the coming months. In turn, that should... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in February even if, as we suspect, it rose a touch due to higher food inflation. As such, the RBI will almost certainly cut policy rates again, perhaps... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modi government likely to continue with FDI reform Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift in... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Higher services inflation a reflection of strong demand There is little evidence to suggest that inflation in the services sector is being boosted by “one-off” factors, as has been suggested by several MPC members. Instead, it appears to be a reflection of... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no cause for panic India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in January, but with oil prices likely to fall over the coming months, we think the shortfall will narrow again before long. In turn, that should help to keep... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers pre-election rate cut The RBI’s new governor Shaktikanta Das has delivered what the Modi government was hoping for. The “calibrated tightening” stance was jettisoned at his first policy meeting today in favour of a rate... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Interim budget plans lack substance The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget today to shore up popular support ahead of the general election with proposals to boost rural incomes and cut income tax. But it is also... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from the interim budget The finance ministry will be keen to include some election sweeteners in the interim budget that is due on 1st February. But it will also want to demonstrate fiscal rectitude. The most likely outcome... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 10-month low in December and, with oil prices likely to fall further, we think the shortfall will shrink a little more over the coming months. In turn... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The recent weakness of headline consumer price inflation, which we think dropped a little further in December, has undermined the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But we are more... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed a touch in November and, with oil prices likely to stay lower, we think that the deficit will shrink further over the coming months. 17th December 2018 · 1 min read