India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time in five months in June. Looking ahead, a limited exposure to a more protectionist US, as well as low oil prices, will help to keep the... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) The likely rise in headline inflation in June won’t prevent the MPC – now firmly under the control of doves following the surprise resignation of deputy governor Viral Acharya last month – from... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The fiscal maths don’t add up The finance ministry attempted to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal prudence by lowering the FY19/20 deficit target in today’s union budget announcement. However, it is also aiming to boost... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, while significant policy loosening could cause imports to pick up over the coming quarters, we think that oil prices will remain low. This should... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What to expect from the union budget Given the recent economic slowdown, new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to announce more accommodative tax and spending measures when she unveils the union budget for this fiscal year on... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Acharya resignation another blow to RBI credibility The surprise resignation of RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya – one of the most hawkish members of the MPC – boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it should once again raise... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Cash will remain king for a long time yet Cashless transactions in India have risen sharply over the past few years, and recent developments should further support the expansion of digital payments. But while there is a clear willingness from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will narrow again soon India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in May but given its very low exposure to an escalation in trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to stay... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI signals further loosening to come The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New Finance Minister faces delicate balancing act Nirmala Sitharaman, who has just been selected to replace Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister, faces a delicate balancing act in her new role. On the one hand, she will want to display fiscal rectitude... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in car sales exaggerating consumption weakness The recent sharp drop in vehicle sales might signal that household consumption has slumped. But a significant part of the drop in sales can be explained by industry-specific factors including higher... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in April but, given its very low exposure to a ratcheting up of trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to fall, we... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April due to another pick up in food inflation. However, it will have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target. That will be enough to prompt... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittances to remain a key source of funding Remittances from abroad are an important source of external funding for India and were equivalent to almost 3% of GDP in 2018. That was more than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Although there are... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read