India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s loosening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank delivered a (slightly) larger-than-expected rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump has bottomed out Investment growth collapsed to a near four-year low in Q1. While a spectacular rebound will remain elusive, investment should recover gradually over the coming quarters as election-related uncertainty... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Gold price rally won’t hurt external position Gold prices have hit a record high in rupee terms in recent weeks, surpassing the previous peak in 2012 when India was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. But a drop in underlying demand for... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Back to the future for FDI policy Measures announced during this month’s union budget to ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to assuage concerns that policymakers have embraced a more insular view on... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How credible is the asset sales target? The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target that has been set in the budget for FY19/20 appear to be dependent on the smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. That seems unlikely... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time in five months in June. Looking ahead, a limited exposure to a more protectionist US, as well as low oil prices, will help to keep the... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) The likely rise in headline inflation in June won’t prevent the MPC – now firmly under the control of doves following the surprise resignation of deputy governor Viral Acharya last month – from... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The fiscal maths don’t add up The finance ministry attempted to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal prudence by lowering the FY19/20 deficit target in today’s union budget announcement. However, it is also aiming to boost... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, while significant policy loosening could cause imports to pick up over the coming quarters, we think that oil prices will remain low. This should... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What to expect from the union budget Given the recent economic slowdown, new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to announce more accommodative tax and spending measures when she unveils the union budget for this fiscal year on... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Acharya resignation another blow to RBI credibility The surprise resignation of RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya – one of the most hawkish members of the MPC – boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it should once again raise... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Cash will remain king for a long time yet Cashless transactions in India have risen sharply over the past few years, and recent developments should further support the expansion of digital payments. But while there is a clear willingness from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will narrow again soon India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in May but given its very low exposure to an escalation in trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to stay... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI signals further loosening to come The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
