India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have jumped in September on the back of a surge in onion prices. But that’ll hardly bring tears to the eyes of the RBI, as it is likely to have stayed... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI prolongs easing cycle The Reserve Bank reverted back to a 25bp rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing in the near term. But we are firmly non-consensus in expecting modest rate hikes by the end of... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit narrowed a touch in the four quarters to Q2 and looks unlikely to balloon any time soon as imports of key commodities remain in check. Meanwhile, FDI inflows edged up... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Four key points as Sitharaman loosens the purse strings Fiscal loosening measures announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today are likely to provide a small boost to economic growth over the coming quarters, but significantly increase the chances... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit set to remain contained The goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in August and, even if export growth stays weak, we think that the shortfall will remain small over the coming quarters. 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in August, due in large part to a renewed pick up in food inflation. But it will remain comfortably below the RBI’s 4.0% target. And given the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Bank mergers add to reasons for optimism The government’s plan to merge several state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered system. It follows a recent increase in the size of the recapitalisation... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest further loosening likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting suggest that the MPC’s larger-than-expected rate cut was intended in part to send a dovish signal rather than simply being a case of “front... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will remain small The merchandise trade deficit narrowed in July and we think that it will remain small over the coming months given India’s limited exposure to trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s loosening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank delivered a (slightly) larger-than-expected rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump has bottomed out Investment growth collapsed to a near four-year low in Q1. While a spectacular rebound will remain elusive, investment should recover gradually over the coming quarters as election-related uncertainty... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Gold price rally won’t hurt external position Gold prices have hit a record high in rupee terms in recent weeks, surpassing the previous peak in 2012 when India was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. But a drop in underlying demand for... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Back to the future for FDI policy Measures announced during this month’s union budget to ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to assuage concerns that policymakers have embraced a more insular view on... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How credible is the asset sales target? The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target that has been set in the budget for FY19/20 appear to be dependent on the smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. That seems unlikely... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read