India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February, in large part due to a moderation in food inflation. This should further embolden the RBI to follow its global peers... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Coronavirus to weigh on economic recovery The rapid global spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to lower our 2020 GDP growth forecast for India to 5.3%, from 5.7% previously. And there is now a high chance that the RBI follows the lead... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Making sense of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s GDP data suggest that the recent slowdown started earlier, and problems in the shadow banking sector have had a more acute impact on the economy, than previously thought. But... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump may have bottomed out A slump in investment has been the key factor behind the sharp economic slowdown over the past year. A spectacular rebound is not on the cards but investment should recover gradually over the coming... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no major concern India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a seven-month high in January, but we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall from ballooning to... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in January, in large part due to a continued increase in food inflation. Further ahead, food inflation is likely to ease, but we expect... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales target lacks credibility The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target in the budget for FY20/21 hinge on the smooth sale of large stakes in one of India’s worst-performing banks and a politically-important... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Risks from wider trade deficit are limited The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in December is likely to reverse over the coming months. But we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Protests could be a mixed blessing for economy The direct economic impact of the protests that began in opposition to the citizenship amendment bill is likely to be small. However, the protests have increased the chances of a larger fiscal... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Little threat from wider trade deficit India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in November and we expect this to continue into 2020. Nevertheless, with imports of key commodities set to remain low, we think that the external shortfall... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
