India Economics Update RBI steps up virus response, further loosening likely The RBI has taken further steps to help banks and borrowers weather the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data highlight collapse in demand The collapse in both exports and imports in March highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. What’s more, the worst is yet to come as lockdowns to contain the spread of the... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown extension will require huge fiscal support PM Modi’s decision to extend the nationwide lockdown that was due to end today comes as no major surprise given that coronavirus cases in India continue to surge. With many households having no... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial activity has collapsed Timely indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and air quality strongly suggest that industrial activity has fallen off a cliff since the nationwide lockdown began on 25th March. These... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Collapse in demand and oil prices to anchor inflation Given the concerns about public health and the impact of the national lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though, the likelihood... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry needs to throw caution to the wind The Finance Ministry’s response to the coronavirus so far has been tepid and, unless it steps up, it risks turning the public health crisis into a humanitarian and banking crisis. We assume it will do... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up emphatically The RBI has emphatically stepped up its response to the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak with another emergency announcement today. It has also left the door wide... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Growth to slump to a four-decade low in 2020 The measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus announced by PM Modi last night will be hard to fully implement but will still have severe economic repercussions. We now expect the economy to... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Containment measures put onus on finance ministry The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India is now rising sharply and, in response, most states have implemented full or partial lockdowns. With many households likely to have very low savings... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Coronavirus: can India learn lessons from the NIEs? Prime Minister Modi’s address this evening seemed intended mainly to raise awareness of the threat posed by the coronavirus in India. With case numbers still low, the government has taken few measures... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI keeps some ammunition in the locker The RBI announced some measures to boost bank liquidity in a hastily-arranged press conference today but disappointed the bond market by not lowering policy rates. With the coronavirus a growing... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External position secure amid market turbulence India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a one-year low in February and the collapse in oil prices since then should push the deficit even lower in the months ahead. As such, we now expect the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Oil price collapse a positive amid market rout The plunge in oil prices over the past week means there’s a good chance that India records a rare current account surplus over the coming quarters. This should help to ensure that the rout in local... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update South Asia at high risk of wide-scale virus outbreak The rising number of new coronavirus infections in Asia beyond China has largely been confined to Korea and Japan. But poor healthcare provision, the density of population and high levels of internal... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Yes Bank failure adds to mounting downside risks Though the RBI’s takeover of Yes Bank is intended to reduce the direct threat posed by the failing bank to India’s financial stability, the measures that have been implemented could exacerbate... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
