India Economics Update Trade data provide cold comfort The slight easing in the y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in May supports evidence from elsewhere that the worst has now passed for the economy. But both remain extremely weak, and a sharp... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industry past the worst but recovery will be slow Industrial output ground to a halt in April but high-frequency indicators including electricity consumption and air pollution levels suggest that activity has edged up since then. However, lasting... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South Asia and the lockdown dilemma Lockdowns are being eased in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh without any sign that coronavirus infections are being brought under control. Economic recoveries will face greater headwinds than in places... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest further loosening likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s late May policy meeting – in which it trimmed both the repo and reverse repo rates – show that the MPC has become markedly more bearish on the outlook for economic... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should not constrain policymakers Daily price data give a strong indication that food inflation dropped in May, most likely as supply disruptions eased a touch and agricultural activity was allowed to resume. With global oil prices... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Cash to remain king for a long while yet Amid the severe economic damage that the coronavirus and containment measures have caused, one potential positive is the greater prevalence of cashless payments as people make more purchases from home... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response, more easing in store The RBI has further stepped up its response to the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central bank has also left... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Stimulus disappoints amid lockdown extension The final details of the stimulus package reinforce our initial take that, while helpful in limiting downside risks to the economy, it will do little to boost demand in the near term. With the... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data indicate extreme weakness in demand The 60% y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in April highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. This will probably mark the bottom as restrictions on activity are... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New fiscal package is less spectacular than it seems Prime Minister Modi’s 10% of GDP support package sounds impressive but the details just announced make clear that it has been bulked out for effect. Extra demand-boosting measures are worth less than... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery a long way off Industrial output slumped in March and more timely evidence from the manufacturing PMI, electricity consumption and vehicle production strongly suggest that the sector has come to a near standstill in... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should be of no concern to policymakers Given growing worries about public health and the devastating economic impact of India’s lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown will worsen banking sector strains The government’s reluctance to provide significant financial support for firms and households during lockdown means that non-performing loans are likely to surge. One legacy of the coronavirus in... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
