India Economics Update India’s digital economy going from strength to strength Five years on from start of the pandemic, one of the big economic legacies in India is the adoption of digital payments, driven by mobile apps and the Unified Payments Interface. This increased... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Indian rupee and equities set for further weakness A slowdown in the economy, alongside an unfavourable external environment, have contributed to declines in the Indian stock market and the rupee. We continue to expect the stock market to decline... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update New governor, new direction for the RBI The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India’s Union Budget to provide limited growth boost Tax breaks included in India’s FY25/26 Union Budget announcement should provide some support to household consumption but, overall, the measures fall some way short of constituting major stimulus... 1st February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What to expect from India’s FY25/26 Union Budget Hopes that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big fiscal package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in the upcoming Union Budget are likely to be disappointed. Some more... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India, Trump and the H-1B visa debate President Donald Trump for now at least appears to be in favour of the H-1B visa scheme, a key route for Indians to work in the US tech sector, but the scheme is a key source of friction among his... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India: FDI slump set to reverse The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India last year seems in large part a reflection of still-high global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will begin cutting the repo rate in April The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today highlights its unease at the current rate of headline inflation. Admittedly, the lowering of the cash... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India, Trump tariffs and friendshoring prospects Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Unsecured lending: boom to bust? We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Modi resisting populist shift Contrary to many expectations in the aftermath of the BJP’s humbling in the general election, there is little evidence so far of Prime Minister Modi’s party shifting to more populist policymaking. And... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on course for December rate cut The Reserve Bank of India’s new-look MPC voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today as expected but struck a less hawkish tone in its communications, which included a change in the official... 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
