India Economics Update India, Trump tariffs and friendshoring prospects Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Unsecured lending: boom to bust? We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Modi resisting populist shift Contrary to many expectations in the aftermath of the BJP’s humbling in the general election, there is little evidence so far of Prime Minister Modi’s party shifting to more populist policymaking. And... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on course for December rate cut The Reserve Bank of India’s new-look MPC voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today as expected but struck a less hawkish tone in its communications, which included a change in the official... 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (September) The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI to ease policy by year-end The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry continues to show fiscal restraint Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has shown a commitment to fiscal consolidation while for the most part placating the BJP’s coalition partners in today’s FY24/25 Union Budget announcement. There is... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New forecasts for inflation and policy rates The upside surprise to headline consumer price inflation last month has all but ended hopes of a rate cut at the RBI’s August policy meeting. But we think that the conditions will be in place for... 16th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Services export boom has an AI sting in the tail Much of the strength of India’s external position over recent years can be explained by robust growth in its services exports, in particular its business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. The near... 9th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0 The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI still on course for August rate cut The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
