India Economics Focus Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the coming years. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere that... 15th October 2019 · 8 mins read
India Economics Focus A US$5trn economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 17th September 2019 · 11 mins read
India Economics Focus Five more years of Modi Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy The BJP appears on course to remain in power after India’s general election. But which party wins probably matters less for the economy and financial markets than whether the election delivers a... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What to expect in 2019 Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened and... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus A helping hand from the diaspora Remittances from abroad are a vital – yet often underappreciated – source of funding for India at the macro level, and provide significant financial support for millions of families. Remittances may... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Will higher female participation boost the economy? Only one-quarter of Indian women of working age are in paid employment. If participation in the workforce could increase to the rates of other Asian countries such as Indonesia or the Philippines by... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Inflation rise tests the RBI's credibility A sharp rise in inflation over recent months, and a jump in household inflation expectations, has raised concerns that the RBI has fallen behind the curve and is squandering its hard-won inflation... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Is India finally coming of age? Talk of India’s potential to become the “next China” is inevitable given their enormous populations, and will intensify as China’s economy slows. Those hoping that India can match China’s former rates... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Are India’s banks in the clear? The recapitalisation package recently announced by the government is the most significant measure yet to tidy up India’s beleaguered banking system and should all but enable India’s banks to meet... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Which states are set to shine? There are vast differences in the economic prospects of India’s 36 states and union territories. The three richest large states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat – should continue to drive growth... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What next for the Modi government? During his three years in office, Prime Minister Modi has taken a more incremental approach to economic policymaking than many had hoped for. This is likely to set the tone for the coming years. Small... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Can services alone deliver rapid growth? India is often heralded for demonstrating a new path to middle income by focusing on the development of its services sector rather than on significant industrialisation. It is true that India’s... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How to think about monetary policy after Rajan The appointment of Dr Urjit Patel as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gives a strong indication of policy continuity at the central bank, and strengthens our view that the easing... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The key point of interest in the upcoming budget will be whether the finance ministry implements the large public sector pay rise that the 7 th Pay Commission recommended. We think it will and, with... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
