India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
India Economics Focus Unlocking India's demographic potential If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s... 15th February 2023 · 14 mins read
India Economics Focus Rupee to reverse course this decade The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are... 31st August 2022 · 17 mins read
India Economics Focus Policymakers will turn to financial repression Policy tightening by the RBI is putting public finances stretched by the pandemic under further strain. While an increase in debt financing costs is inevitable, we expect the government and RBI to... 1st June 2022 · 10 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
India Economics Focus The fallout from the second wave India’s ferocious second wave of COVID infections is likely to have caused the economy to contract by about 5% over Q2 as a whole. The good news is that the outbreak is quickly subsiding and activity... 3rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economics Focus State elections could brighten reform outlook The upcoming state elections in India will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be important in... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus What should we expect from the Union Budget? The Finance Ministry faces a tough balancing act in the Union Budget for FY21/22 as it aims to stabilise the public finances while avoiding economically and politically-damaging spending cuts. The... 25th January 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economics Focus Our key calls for 2021 The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is... 16th December 2020 · 10 mins read
India Economics Focus How will policymakers deal with soaring public debt? The economic slump and the government’s fiscal response are driving a sharp rise in public debt in India. There is no immediate threat given low-interest rates and the likelihood that nominal GDP... 13th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
India Economics Focus Virus disruption will leave severe and lasting scars India’s economy is all but certain to contract this year for the first time since 1979. And the government’s reluctance to respond to the coronavirus crisis as aggressively as those elsewhere means... 6th May 2020 · 13 mins read
India Economics Focus What to expect from the union budget A wave of anti-government protests and a weak economy have increased the likelihood of the finance ministry delivering additional fiscal stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget on Saturday 1st February... 22nd January 2020 · 11 mins read
India Economics Focus Turning the corner in 2020 After a dreadful 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more decisive measures to deal with problems in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
India Economics Focus The long-term impact of demonetisation Three years after the shock announcement that the bulk of India’s bank notes were being withdrawn, any benefits from “demonetisation” should be evident by now. But the promised gains haven’t... 30th October 2019 · 9 mins read
