India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) While the rise in headline wholesale price inflation was expected, underlying price pressures appear stickier than we had initially thought. We think these will still ease over the coming months, but... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The unexpected jump in headline inflation last month was the result of core inflation being higher than we had anticipated. We suspect core inflation will eventually ease back due to the weakness of... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The July PMI surveys have been a mixed bag but, taken together with evidence elsewhere, they suggest that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stalling. This adds to the case for further monetary... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The small drop in July’s manufacturing PMI adds to signs elsewhere that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling. Looking ahead, the road back to normality for the manufacturing sector will be slow and... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased slightly in June, but the weakness of industry will still have weighed heavily on GDP in Q2. What’s more, there are already signs... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for policymakers, but the broad-based rebound in the headline rate challenges our view that price pressures will ease this year... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in India appears to be easing after an initial surge when the lockdown first came into effect. We expect headline inflation to continue falling towards the RBI’s 4% target, which should... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The rebound in June’s services and composite PMIs suggests the economy is now on the long road to normality. But the recovery will be slow and fitful. 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Despite remaining below 50, the rise in June’s manufacturing PMI reading suggests to us that activity has picked up further as containment measures have been scaled back. However, the lasting damage... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased a little in May, suggesting that the slump in industry has bottomed out. But activity is still very weak and, given the damage... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation data for May show a broad-based easing in price pressures. This reinforces our view that inflation shouldn’t be a barrier to further policy loosening, and we expect the RBI... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) Interpreting the PMI surveys in the current environment is tricky, but the small rise in May’s services PMI suggests to us that activity has edged up very slightly. Nevertheless, fears over infection... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The nature of the PMI surveys makes them tricky to interpret in the current environment, but we think May’s manufacturing reading indicates that activity in the sector edged up slightly last month... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) According to the official GDP data, India’s economy held up rather well in Q1 as a whole given that a stringent lockdown was imposed in the second half of March. But the data are increasingly subject... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The partial release of the WPI inflation figures for April strongly suggest that the headline rate has dropped. This supports our view that the inflation outlook shouldn’t be a concern for... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
