India Data Response GDP (Q1) The smaller than expected rise in Indian GDP in Q1 will be followed by a significant contraction in Q2 caused by the virus surge and tightening of containment measures. While the real-time activity... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The surge in Indian wholesale price inflation in April was driven in large part by the rally in commodity prices, which we think will reverse over the coming months. That should allow the RBI to keep... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) India’s PMI readings for April suggest that economic activity has held up fairly well despite the latest set of containment measures. But with virus cases still extremely high, tighter and wider... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI held up well in April, reflecting the fact that the containment measures in response to the surge in COVID-19 cases have been very light touch compared to last year. But the... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in March, but this is old news given the dramatic surge in virus cases and renewed tightening of containment measures since then. 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Mar. 2021) The faster-than-anticipated acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in March was driven by a surge in fuel inflation, but we think it should fall back soon enough. And with the recent jump... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a four-month high in March as food inflation accelerated. But we doubt that the headline rate will continue rising for much longer and, with the economic... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Mar.) India’s PMI readings for March indicate that the economic recovery continued to progress well at the end of Q1. But with virus cases surging and new restrictions quickly coming onto the agenda, the... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI for March indicates a continued rebound in the sector last month, but that has already been overtaken by more recent events. In particular, the renewed surge in new COVID-19... 5th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Feb.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slumped in February and, with the broader industrial outlook taking a turn for the worse as new COVID-19 cases mount, the RBI is likely to keep policy... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation rebounded in February, but we doubt that this will lead to a rate hike at the upcoming MPC meeting in April. The renewed contraction in industrial output in January clearly... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Feb.) India’s PMI readings for February suggest that output has rebounded further above pre-virus levels so far this quarter. With fiscal policy turning more supportive and new virus cases remaining low... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading was virtually unchanged in February and remains consistent with a strong recovery in the sector so far this quarter. That should continue over the coming months... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4 2020) India’s Q4 GDP data confirm that the economy continued to perform well at the end of 2020 and the outlook for this year has improved too as fiscal policy has been loosened substantially. Even so, we... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
