India Data Response GDP (Q2) The record y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q2 (Q1 of FY21/22) was due entirely to base effects. We estimate that the economy shrank by 12% in q/q terms as India struggled with its Delta outbreak. Timely... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The drop in India’s headline wholesale price inflation in July came on the back of an easing in fuel and food inflation, both of which have further to run. And with headline CPI inflation having... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped below the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range in July, and we think further falls are likely. With the economy also still weak, there should be little... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The rebound in India’s PMI surveys in July provides further evidence that the economy was quick to get back on its feet after the second virus wave. But the rapid reopening, combined with low... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The sharp rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to evidence that the economy has been staging a strong recovery ever since the second virus wave receded. But with vaccine coverage still... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms in June, suggesting that an industrial recovery is well underway. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in June suggests that the recent plunge in new virus cases has yet to translate into a pick-up in manufacturing activity. The recovery should get back on track as... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) India’s core infrastructure industries index dropped sharply in m/m terms in May, suggesting that the second virus wave has taken a large toll on industry even though it has been subject to fewer... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a six-month high in May on the back of an unexpected surge in core inflation, which we suspect is a result of rising commodity prices now seeping into retail... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation surged to a three-decade high in May on the back of the sharp rise in global commodity prices and will be a concern for policymakers. However, there are reasons to think that... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) There is unlikely to be a clearer illustration of the distorting impact of base effects than the 134% y/y rise reported in Indian industrial production in April. Industrial output actually dropped in... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) India’s PMI readings for May adds to evidence elsewhere that the damage from the second virus wave has not been as severe as when the pandemic first struck last year. But with restrictions likely to... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI to a ten-month low in May suggests that activity has taken a hit from the second virus wave despite the sector being largely exempt from containment measures. And... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
