India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation soared beyond even our above-consensus forecast in March and, given that it is likely to rise further over the coming months, we think the RBI will start hiking the... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Mar.) India’s March PMIs show services as the bright spot last month as looser virus restrictions allowed activity to rebound. Unless COVID-19 cases pick up again, the outlook for the services sector... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in March as high commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine began to take a toll on the sector. Given that fuel and gas prices have only climbed higher since... 4th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Feb.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries picked up in February as the Omicron wave subsided. But the surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine is likely to squeeze profit... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) India’s consumer price inflation breached the RBI’s 6% ceiling in February, sooner than even our relatively hawkish forecasts had suggested. The surge in commodity prices will keep the headline rate... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Indian wholesale price inflation remained near historic highs in February, and it is likely to stay elevated in the near term given the recent surge in commodity prices. 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Indian industrial production held steady in m/m terms in January, supporting our view that the Omicron hit to the economy was small. But looking ahead, the surge in commodity prices as a result of the... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Feb.) The rebound in India’s February PMIs suggests that activity is bouncing back as the Omicron outbreak subsides. And we think that there’s still significant scope for the economy to grow rapidly over... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in February as the Omicron outbreak subsided and containment measures were scaled back. But the threat of a continued rise in commodity prices as a result of the... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Indian GDP data for Q4 (Q3 of FY21/22) show that economic growth was slowing before the Omicron wave hit. That outbreak will have caused activity to weaken further in the early stages of Q1. But with... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Indian consumer price inflation reached the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in January and, in contrast to the central bank, we think it will rise a bit further over the coming months. That will... 14th February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Jan.) The drop in India’s PMIs in January suggest that activity weakened as the Omicron variant spread across the country. But the impact appears to be much less severe than that of the last two virus waves... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s PMIs remained buoyant in December, suggesting that activity continued picking up towards the end of 2021. We think the recovery will gain momentum this year but a recent sharp jump in... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Indian wholesale price inflation unexpectedly jumped to a record high in November. And given the mounting upside risks to the inflation outlook, there is a growing chance that the RBI brings forward... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) India’s consumer price inflation rose to a three-month in November and upside risks to the outlook are mounting. While we still think the RBI won’t raise policy rates until the middle of next year, a... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
