India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in July is a challenge to our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate by 50bps again next month. But core inflation remains pretty strong, and the... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jul.) India’s July PMIs show a reversal of the recent outperformance of services. That said, both the services and composite PMIs remain high by pre-pandemic standards, pointing to growth continuing to hold... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI was remarkably strong in July, with domestic demand supporting activity despite a negative global backdrop. The rebound will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50bps... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) Favourable base effects kept y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries elevated in June. But once those base effects are removed, it’s clear that the industrial sector is entering a weaker... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation in India dropped back in June from its record high, and now appears to have passed its peak. CPI inflation will also peak in the next few months, but in the near term it’s... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in June, but the core rate rose further. We expect inflation to climb higher above the RBI’s target in July and August, which should be enough for the MPC... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jun.) India’s June PMIs show exceptionally strong activity in the services sector is offsetting slower growth in manufacturing. That may give the RBI some added confidence to continue frontloading policy... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in June, adding to the evidence of a slowdown in the broader industrial sector. Meanwhile although there are tentative signs of price pressures in the sector... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) Base effects boosted y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries to a 13-month high in May. But stripping out base effects reveals that industry might be entering a softer patch after a... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Indian wholesale price inflation climbed to another historic high in May. The rise in food prices in particular suggests that some of the upside risks to the inflation picture we have been flagging... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation dropped back in May, but much of that was due to base effects. We expect inflation to resume rising from June, prompting the RBI to continue frontloading policy... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI held steady in May, but there are further signs of price pressures becoming more intense last month. That supports our view that the RBI will frontload its policy tightening. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY21/22) show that activity held up much better during the Omicron outbreak than during previous virus waves. The economy is well-placed for strong growth over 2022 as a... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) Headline consumer price inflation surged beyond even our above-consensus forecast to an eight-year high of 7.8% y/y in April. Given that it is likely to rise even higher over the coming months... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Apr.) India’s April PMIs show activity picking up, but power shortages may weigh on output soon. The surveys also provide more evidence of price pressures growing. That suggests the RBI will follow up... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slowed in March as production of some energy commodities fell. However, there are tentative signs that the rise in commodity prices caused by the war... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
