India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in August and remained comfortably below the RBI’s target of 4.0%. This is the last set of CPI data that will be released before the MPC next meets in... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Despite dropping in August, the recent manufacturing PMI readings paint a healthier picture of the sector than the Q2 GDP data released last week. That said, they won’t provide a hurdle to additional... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Another unexpectedly weak quarter of growth in India strengthens the case for further easing of fiscal and monetary policy. We expect both over the rest of this year. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the weakness in the headline rate in July increases the likelihood of another rate cut at the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation held steady in July and remains comfortably below the central bank’s (RBI) 4.0% target, laying the foundations for at least one more interest rate cut later this year. But with... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Indian industrial production growth slowed in June, but the sector performed much better across Q2 compared to Q1. Looking ahead, recent policy moves should help to support local industry over the... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading for July is consistent with decent output in the sector at the start of Q3. But this won’t be a barrier to further monetary easing, and we’ve pencilled in another... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the continued decline in the headline rate in June will help the MPC to justify another rate cut at... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation in India rose last month but the headline rate remains below the RBI’s target, while core inflation is no major concern. An August rate cut is almost certain. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but, even so, the drop in the headline rate in May will be used by the MPC as further justification of its... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) While India's headline inflation edged up in May and is likely to rise further, a sizeable fall in core inflation will be seen by policymakers at the RBI as vindication of their view that there is... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in May should help to ease some concerns over the state of local manufacturing following the weakness of the GDP data for Q1. Nevertheless, additional... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) The sharp drop in GDP growth in Q1 looks all the more perplexing given that various other indicators suggest a much milder slowdown last quarter. Nevertheless, the data will seal the deal on another... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in April will increase the clamour for another rate cut in June. But we think that underlying inflation will soon rise again, which underlines the risks... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further interest rate cuts in India look only a matter of time after headline inflation in April came in at a below-target 2.9% y/y. However, we continue to think that further monetary loosening is a... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
