India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in headline CPI inflation to its highest since 2014 almost guarantees that the RBI will leave policy rates on hold at its next meeting in early February. And with core inflation likely to... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected turnaround in industrial production growth in November is a breath of fresh air for India’s economy and supports our view that the economic slowdown has probably bottomed out... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in December suggests that the manufacturing sector has recovered from its weakness last year and supports our view that the recent economic slowdown has run its... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation rose for the first time in eight months in November. While not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, this adds to the impression that the... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The further surge in headline inflation in November casts doubt on the possibility of further monetary easing. If the headline rate remains high above the central bank’s 4.0% target this month as well... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in November but, with policy stimulus already in the pipeline, we think that the prospects for local manufacturers will improve... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) India’s economy slowed further in Q3 and, with a strong rebound in the near term looking unlikely, there is a rising chance that the rate cut that is almost certain next week will be followed by... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the fact that the headline rate dropped to a 40-month low in October won’t go unnoticed. Another rate... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The first above-target inflation reading since July last year should not push the Reserve Bank of India off its rate-cutting course. While the headline figure is being driven by a spike in food prices... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The downturn in India’s industrial production deepened in September with the result that, on this measure, industry contracted slightly across Q3 as a whole. More policy easing is likely in order to... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in October to a two-year low is a worrying sign that business conditions have further deteriorated. But with fiscal policy being loosened and further monetary... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in headline consumer price inflation in September won’t prevent another policy rate cut from the Reserve Bank, particularly since it was largely due to damage to farmers’ harvests rather than... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The weakness in wholesale price inflation in September is likely to persist until the end of the year and, although not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, supports our view... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The contraction in India’s industrial production in August is alarming but it should prove temporary as the effect of recent policy easing kicks in. 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reading held steady in September, but this barely captured the impact of the recent large-scale corporate tax cut. Looser fiscal policy and the likelihood of further monetary... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the continued weakness in the headline rate in August increases the likelihood of another rate... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
