India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The further easing in headline CPI inflation in December to a 12-month low of 5.7% y/y supports our view that the tightening cycle is in its final throes. We expect just one more hike in the repo rate... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose to multi-month highs in December but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to a 21-month low in November chimes with the sharper-than-expected drop in headline consumer price inflation released earlier this week. We maintain our... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in November and continues to buck the weaker regional trend. The survey also indicates that price pressures are easing, reinforcing our view that the RBI is now in a... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The substantial falls in both headline consumer and wholesale price inflation in October reinforce our view that the Reserve Bank will slow the pace of monetary tightening in its next scheduled policy... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production in India rebounded strongly in September, but we don’t expect this strength to last. Higher interest rates and the slowdown in global demand look set to weigh heavily on the... 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing sector appears to have bucked the weaker regional trend, with an increase in its PMI last month. There was nothing in today’s release to dissuade the RBI from further tightening. 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to an 18-month low in September comes as welcome news following the stronger-than-expected consumer price data released earlier thi s week. And with... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) The rise in headline consumer price inflation in September to further above the RBI’s 2-6% target range challenges our view that the RBI will slow the pace of tightening. But with food and energy... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Oct.) India’s PMI readings moderated in September but the more important point is that they still indicate healthy growth in both manufacturing and services. The RBI will remain comfortable tightening... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The rise in Indian CPI inflation in August to further above the RBI’s 2-6% target range should ensure that the central bank delivers another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) in its meeting at the... 12th September 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI moderated a touch in August but the more important point is that the reading is still consistent with robust growth in the sector. The RBI will remain comfortable tightening... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Base effects caused a surge in headline Indian GDP growth in Q2 (Q1 of FY22/23), but underlying growth slowed relative to Q1. As a result, GDP growth won’t reach 9% in 2022 as we had thought. That... 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation in July reflects easing wholesale food inflation and lower commodity prices. But given both WPI and CPI inflation are still elevated, we think the RBI will... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
