India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
