Global Trade Monitor More signs that the trade recovery has reached its limits While world goods trade fell in July, the signs are that it perked up a bit in August. But stepping back from the month-to-month moves, global trade flows have broadly flattened out at a high level... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Plateau in world trade and supply bottlenecks to persist The latest data show that world trade has flattened off at a high level. While timely indicators suggest that trade is unlikely to reaccelerate, it doesn’t look set to weaken much either. Consequently... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade recovery levelling off Real world goods trade edged down in May, suggesting that the recovery has levelled off. True, this slight fall comes after an impressive rebound since May last year, global trade remains well above... 26th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Recovery in world trade continues, for now April’s data revealed that world trade flows have enjoyed virtually interrupted growth for 12 months now, with world trade remaining well above its pre-virus level. But between the quintupling of... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Higher costs and delays are not damaging demand The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Little sign of disruption from Suez blockage The blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which ran aground exactly one month ago, has had limited effects on shipping congestion and container freight rates worldwide... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Suez blockage could add to pressure on shipping costs Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau suggested that world trade had shrugged off rising shipping costs up to January, with real goods trade rising by 2.5% m/m. The outlook is broadly positive. But if... 25th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping strains to ease as goods demand moderates While the latest signs are that capacity constraints in global shipping are continuing to bite, we expect these to subside over the course of the year. Indeed, as vaccine rollouts allow economies to... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade surpasses pre-virus level Another increase in world trade in November meant that it exceeded its pre-pandemic level, though exports remained depressed in the US and emerging Europe. Since November, container freight rates have... 26th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade over 90% of way back to pre-virus level While world GDP was probably still about 3% short of its end-2019 level at the end of Q3, world trade had recovered to 1.5% below its pre-virus peak. As long as industry remains relatively unscathed... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade boosted by strong recovery in retail sales The further rise in world trade volumes in August was unsurprising given that there has been a strong recovery the demand for imported goods. Given the experience so far, we would expect world trade... 26th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade has clawed back ~75% of lost ground At its trough, in May, world trade fell 17% below its December 2019 level. Data released today show that, by July, world trade had made up two thirds of the lost ground, standing at 6.6% below its... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade starts on the long road to recovery The record monthly rise in global trade volumes in June was little surprise given both the size of the falls earlier in the year and that, by this point, most countries were past the worst of their... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade continues to contract Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau showed a further fall in world trade in May. Admittedly, the decline in trade so far this year has been smaller than the collapse in GDP might have led us to fear... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Sharpest monthly contraction in world trade on record April’s world trade data confirmed that coronavirus restrictions have taken a very heavy toll on trade flows. But the damage has been slightly less severe than we had feared and more timely data from... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Trade volumes down for third month and worse is to come Given that the lockdowns were implemented in most countries in March, the 1.4% m/m contraction in world trade volumes seems fairly muted. However, the global number was flattered by a sharp rebound in... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
