Global Markets Update Gold’s last hurrah? The recent pick-up in gold prices has failed to impress. We continue to expect prices to drop back to around $700/oz within a year or so. 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Latest oil price spike looks like a bubble about to burst Friday’s $11 jump in the price of a barrel of crude provides the clearest evidence yet that the oil market is increasingly detached from fundamentals. We are raising our assumptions for the future... 9th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has Bernanke really said anything new on the dollar? Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments yesterday on the inflationary impact of the weaker dollar have been widely interpreted as signalling a turning point in the central bank's attitude to the currency. We... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond markets complacent about inflation? Many commentators have begun to argue that markets are increasingly complacent about the outlook for global inflation and that the widespread increase in government bond yields last month is therefore... 2nd June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Policy changes to dampen Asian demand for oil The trend among Asian countries towards cutting fuel subsidies will increase the sensitivity of demand to higher global oil prices and make it less likely that the recent surge in the cost of crude... 23rd May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is gold now too cheap relative to oil? The fact that the ratio of gold prices to oil prices is now well below its long-run average is often used to argue that gold must be significantly under-valued. We disagree, for three reasons. 14th May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Falling dollar obscures weakening oil market fundamentals Developments in the dollar are likely to dominate oil price movements in the short-term and could even drag Brent crude as high as $125 per barrel (pb) this quarter. Nevertheless, with a recovery of... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold price to fall to $700 This week’s sharp falls (from a peak of $1030 to a trough of $905) have reinforced our scepticism about the medium-term outlook for gold prices. We have therefore trimmed our end-2008 forecast from... 20th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much further will the dollar fall? This Update presents new (lower) forecasts for the dollar, but also reiterates our view that the US currency will stage a partial recovery in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who's most afraid of a weaker dollar? The slump in the dollar is encouraging speculation that the ECB and the Bank of Japan will soon be ready to intervene in the markets to cap the strength of their own currencies. However, while the... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are TIPS telling us about US inflation? Martin Wolf’s column in today’s Financial Times draws attention to the surge in the Cleveland Fed’s liquidity-adjusted measure of market expectations for US inflation, derived from inflation-indexed... 5th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Winter delays the easing of oil prices, for now Concerns about supply and strong winter demand have pushed Brent crude back above $95 per barrel (pb). However, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) downward revision to demand forecasts and... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the top on euro-dollar The recent stabilisation of the dollar against the euro – despite aggressive cuts in US interest rates and growing fears of a US recession – has encouraged speculation that the decline in the US... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a bail-out of bond insurers rescue equities? The late rally in Wall Street last night and the strong opening in Europe this morning reflect hopes of a support plan for US bond insurers. This emphasises the extent to which worries about the... 24th January 2008 · 1 min read
