Global Markets Update Who's most afraid of a weaker dollar? The slump in the dollar is encouraging speculation that the ECB and the Bank of Japan will soon be ready to intervene in the markets to cap the strength of their own currencies. However, while the... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are TIPS telling us about US inflation? Martin Wolf’s column in today’s Financial Times draws attention to the surge in the Cleveland Fed’s liquidity-adjusted measure of market expectations for US inflation, derived from inflation-indexed... 5th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Winter delays the easing of oil prices, for now Concerns about supply and strong winter demand have pushed Brent crude back above $95 per barrel (pb). However, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) downward revision to demand forecasts and... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the top on euro-dollar The recent stabilisation of the dollar against the euro – despite aggressive cuts in US interest rates and growing fears of a US recession – has encouraged speculation that the decline in the US... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a bail-out of bond insurers rescue equities? The late rally in Wall Street last night and the strong opening in Europe this morning reflect hopes of a support plan for US bond insurers. This emphasises the extent to which worries about the... 24th January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sinking Baltic index warns of end to commodity boom 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the dollar and euro? We have been long-term bears of the dollar and expect further falls against Asian currencies, including the yen, in 2008. But after the sharp declines in recent years, the outlook against the euro is... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil and gold? Despite the latest spikes in both, we are sticking with our end-2008 forecasts of $75pb for the price of Brent crude and $850/oz for gold. There are good reasons not to get carried away in either... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read