Global Markets Update Gold price to drop to $550 In the light of gold’s recent lacklustre performance we have lowered our price target from $700 to $550/oz. We expect this target to be reached in the first quarter of next year, if not sooner. 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for currencies and commodities The recent acceleration in the dollar’s appreciation against other major currencies (with the notable exception of the yen) reflects a combination of factors, none of which is likely to reverse any... 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC output cuts to provide limited support for oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent days has likely sent OPEC into a panic. The oil-producing cartel has advanced the timing of its “extraordinary” meeting from the 18th November to next Friday... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fiscal stimulus & bond yields - lessons from Japan 29th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update AIG bailout shows how bad conditions have become 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold fails to shine as oil prices return to earth The continued decline in oil prices and today’s lacklustre response in gold prices to the crisis on Wall Street underlines our view that the bull market in both commodities is over. 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Lehmans – trying (and failing) to find a silver lining 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little reason to expect US swap spreads to narrow further 9th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC to hold official quotas, trim production OPEC will likely leave its official quotas on hold at its meeting on Tuesday, even though it may try to cut actual production in the coming months. Nonetheless, we do not think this will be enough to... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold on track for $700 Gold’s fall below $800/oz today has reinforced our long-held and non-consensus view that prices are heading for $700. Indeed, they may get there even sooner than we had expected. 15th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A cautionary note on the dollar Last week’s bounce has prompted us to raise our forecasts for the dollar against the euro, yen and sterling, but we had already expected the US currency to recover some ground in the second half of... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the falls in commodity prices be sustained? We think that the recent sharp falls in commodity prices are more than just a temporary dip in an upward trend. The focus has been on the oil price, which has fallen by more than $25 per barrel (or 18... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No policy shift on the Chinese renminbi Despite the slower pace of appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks, the renminbi is still likely to rise significantly more than the 5% or so priced into the forwards markets for the next 12... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No consensus for changes to GCC dollar pegs The media is again full of speculation that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are about to revalue their currencies against the dollar, or drop their pegs completely in favour of a currency... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
