Global Markets Update OPEC to hold official quotas, trim production OPEC will likely leave its official quotas on hold at its meeting on Tuesday, even though it may try to cut actual production in the coming months. Nonetheless, we do not think this will be enough to... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold on track for $700 Gold’s fall below $800/oz today has reinforced our long-held and non-consensus view that prices are heading for $700. Indeed, they may get there even sooner than we had expected. 15th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A cautionary note on the dollar Last week’s bounce has prompted us to raise our forecasts for the dollar against the euro, yen and sterling, but we had already expected the US currency to recover some ground in the second half of... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the falls in commodity prices be sustained? We think that the recent sharp falls in commodity prices are more than just a temporary dip in an upward trend. The focus has been on the oil price, which has fallen by more than $25 per barrel (or 18... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No policy shift on the Chinese renminbi Despite the slower pace of appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks, the renminbi is still likely to rise significantly more than the 5% or so priced into the forwards markets for the next 12... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No consensus for changes to GCC dollar pegs The media is again full of speculation that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are about to revalue their currencies against the dollar, or drop their pegs completely in favour of a currency... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold’s last hurrah? The recent pick-up in gold prices has failed to impress. We continue to expect prices to drop back to around $700/oz within a year or so. 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Latest oil price spike looks like a bubble about to burst Friday’s $11 jump in the price of a barrel of crude provides the clearest evidence yet that the oil market is increasingly detached from fundamentals. We are raising our assumptions for the future... 9th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has Bernanke really said anything new on the dollar? Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments yesterday on the inflationary impact of the weaker dollar have been widely interpreted as signalling a turning point in the central bank's attitude to the currency. We... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond markets complacent about inflation? Many commentators have begun to argue that markets are increasingly complacent about the outlook for global inflation and that the widespread increase in government bond yields last month is therefore... 2nd June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Policy changes to dampen Asian demand for oil The trend among Asian countries towards cutting fuel subsidies will increase the sensitivity of demand to higher global oil prices and make it less likely that the recent surge in the cost of crude... 23rd May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is gold now too cheap relative to oil? The fact that the ratio of gold prices to oil prices is now well below its long-run average is often used to argue that gold must be significantly under-valued. We disagree, for three reasons. 14th May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Falling dollar obscures weakening oil market fundamentals Developments in the dollar are likely to dominate oil price movements in the short-term and could even drag Brent crude as high as $125 per barrel (pb) this quarter. Nevertheless, with a recovery of... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold price to fall to $700 This week’s sharp falls (from a peak of $1030 to a trough of $905) have reinforced our scepticism about the medium-term outlook for gold prices. We have therefore trimmed our end-2008 forecast from... 20th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much further will the dollar fall? This Update presents new (lower) forecasts for the dollar, but also reiterates our view that the US currency will stage a partial recovery in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read