Global Markets Update Best days look over for emerging debt and the EMBI 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of the dollar is not nigh The recent slide in the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves greatly exaggerates the extent to which reserve managers are losing faith in the dollar. The dollar is still entrenched as... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The yen looks set to stay strong Speculation that there has been a change in Japan’s policy toward FX market intervention misses the point. The yen is not expensive in real trade-weighted terms, and has mainly climbed on Japan’s... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to give up on the dollar We continue to expect the US dollar to rebound against the euro and commodity currencies in the coming months, although Asian currencies should do best of all. 23rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Return of the carry trade One explanation for the dollar’s weakness is its increased use as a funding currency. The 3-month interest rate differential between the US and a weighted average of its major trading partners has... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What should we make of booming corporate bond issuance? 17th September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Indian bond yields will rise further next year Investors are becoming increasingly convinced that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be one of the first central banks in Asia to begin hiking rates. However, we still think they may be... 17th September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Resolving the conundrum in equity and bond prices 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gas is too cheap relative to oil We expect further falls in US natural gas prices in the near term. However, the incentive for end-users to substitute gas for oil has rarely been higher, which will eventually feed through to higher... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is gold heading for a traditional seasonal rally? Gold prices appear to follow a seasonal pattern, but the influence of the calendar is small compared to other drivers. We continue to expect a stronger US dollar to drag gold down to $850/oz by year... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Equities still face an uphill battle Now that the S&P 500 has climbed above 1000 for the first time this year, is it time to sound the all clear for equities? We are sceptical. The rally is likely to peter out once the second quarter... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read